UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2
Mexico City, Mexico
24 Feb 2024
Flyweight
VS
91%
Aguilar
9%
Mendonca
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Jesus
Jesus Aguilar
12 – 4
5'4"62" reachOrthodox30 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 52
Mateus
Mateus Mendonca
"Bocao"
10 – 3
Well-Rounded3-fight slide27 yrsOrthodox71" reach5'6"
CFR 5

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Aguilar

Aguilar is a strong favourite at 91% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 47 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Aguilar has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 41 points.

Striking split: Aguilar throws more volume but Mendonca connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Aguilar
Mendonca
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'4"
Height
+5'6"
62"
Reach
+71"
30
Age
+27
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Aguilar
Mendonca
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
52.3
5.3
47.5
Performance Avg
0.0
41
Quality of Victory
0
60
Momentum Score
0
Aguilar
Mendonca
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
0.5
35%
Strike Accuracy
46%
3.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
3
1
Body
1
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
6Distance2
0Clinch0
0Ground2
Aguilar
Mendonca
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
3.2
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
2.2
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
2.5
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Aguilar
Mendonca
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
84
74
Never stopped
Verdict
Moderate
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
8/16 fights
Chin rating based on
3/13 fights
Aguilar
Mendonca
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
60
0
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Aguilar
Mendonca
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
0%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Aguilar
Mendonca
Striking3.6 / 0.0Volume5.1 / 0.0Grappling3.2 / 0.0Wrestling2.2 / 0.0Submission2.5 / 0.0Pressure5.2 / 0.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
3.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
2.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
2.5
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
5.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
Aguilar
Strike Zones
Mendonca
Aguilar
Attacking
4HEAD1BODY1LEGS6 landed
Absorbing
3HEAD1BODY0LEGS4 absorbed
Mendonca
Attacking
3HEAD1BODY0LEGS4 landed
Absorbing
4HEAD1BODY1LEGS6 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Aguilar targets the head (67% of attacks) — Mendonca absorbs 67% of strikes there
🎯Mendonca targets the head (75% of attacks) — Aguilar absorbs 75% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Aguilar
RND
Mendonca
0/0R00/0

Aguilar · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0103.2L5.0W4.5W5.0W6.1L4.5W6.1L2023-022024-022025-022026-03
WinLossTrend

Mendonca · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.0
0105.9L2.7L6.4L2023-012023-102024-02
WinLossTrend

Aguilar · Last 5

Upcoming
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UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo · 2026-05
L · Dec · R3
SumudaerjiRating 6.1
Decision
UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 · 2026-03
W · Dec · R3
Luis GuruleRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva · 2025-09
L · Dec · R3
Rafael EstevamRating 6.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Rodrigues · 2025-02
W · Sub · R1
Stewart NicollRating 5
Submission
UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya · 2024-08

Mendonca · Last 3

L · Dec · R3
Jesus AguilarRating 6.4
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2 · 2024-02
L · KO · R1
Nate ManessRating 2.7
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dawson vs. Green · 2023-10
L · Dec · R3
Javid BasharatRating 5.9
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Imavov · 2023-01

News & Media

Jesus Aguilar · Mateus Mendonca
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