METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 98: Evans vs Machida
Las Vegas, USA
23 May 2009
Welterweight
VS
56%
Hughes
44%
Serra
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Matt HugheswinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Matt Serra · UFC 98: Evans vs Machida
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Hughes
→
Actual result
Hughes wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Hughes at 56% vs Serra at 44% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Risk flags
Hughes's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Serra has a chin rating of 46 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
HughesSerra
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Hughes
Serra
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"+
Height
5'6"
73"+
Reach
68"
52
Age
52
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
Hughes
Serra
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
23.0
18.2
64.6
Performance Avg
53.3
60
Quality of Victory
56
100
Momentum Score
52
Hughes
Serra
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
4.8
/ 10
3.9
/ 10
6.4
Style: Pressure
4.5
3.7
Style: Volume
5.6
6 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
2 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
4
0
Body
1
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
3Distance3
0Clinch0
0Ground3
Hughes
Serra
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.9
/ 10
2.5
/ 10
2.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.8
2.8
Submission Style (/10)
1.4
5
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Hughes
Serra
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
46
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
4
KO/TKO Losses
2
3
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.5 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
25/54 fights
Chin rating based on
14/18 fights
Hughes
Serra
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
52
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R1
W · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
Hughes
Serra
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
61%
43%
6
KO / TKO Wins
2
5
Submission Wins
1
7
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Hughes
Serra
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.9
2.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.5
2.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.8
2.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.4
6.4
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.5
3.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.6
HughesSerra
Strike Zones
Hughes
Attacking
3 landedAbsorbing
6 absorbedSerra
Attacking
6 landedAbsorbing
3 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Hughes targets the head (100% of attacks) — Serra absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Serra targets the head (67% of attacks) — Hughes absorbs 67% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Hughes
RND
Serra
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Hughes · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Josh KoscheckKO/TKO
UFC 135: Jones vs Rampage · 2011-09
L · KO · R1
BJ PennKO/TKO
UFC 123: Rampage vs Machida · 2010-11
W · Sub · R1
Ricardo AlmeidaSubmission
UFC 117: Silva vs Sonnen · 2010-08
W · KO · R3
Renzo GracieKO/TKO
UFC 112: Invincible · 2010-04
W · Dec · R3
Matt SerraDecision
UFC 98: Evans vs Machida · 2009-05
Serra · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Chris LytleDecision
UFC 119: Mir vs Cro Cop · 2010-09
W · KO · R1
Frank TriggKO/TKO
UFC 109: Relentless · 2010-02
L · Dec · R3
Matt HughesDecision
UFC 98: Evans vs Machida · 2009-05
L · KO · R2
Georges St-PierreKO/TKO
UFC 83: Serra vs St-Pierre 2 · 2008-04
W · KO · R1
Georges St-PierreKO/TKO
UFC 69: Shootout · 2007-04