UFC 98: Evans vs Machida
Las Vegas, USA
23 May 2009
Welterweight
VS
56%
Hughes
44%
Serra
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
MH
Matt Hughes
45 – 9
5'9"73" reachSwitch52 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 23
MS
Matt Serra
"The Terra"
11 – 7
Well-Rounded51 yrsOrthodox68" reach5'6"
CFR 18

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Hughes

This is a genuine toss-up — Hughes at 56% vs Serra at 44% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Hughes has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Hughes's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Serra has a chin rating of 46 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Hughes
Serra
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"+
Height
5'6"
73"+
Reach
68"
52
Age
+51
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
Hughes
Serra
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
23.0
18.2
64.6
Performance Avg
53.3
60
Quality of Victory
56
100
Momentum Score
52
Hughes
Serra
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
0.7
56%
Strike Accuracy
37%
4.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.9
6 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
4
0
Body
1
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
3Distance3
0Clinch0
0Ground3
Hughes
Serra
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
2.9
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.5
2.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Hughes
Serra
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
46
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
4
KO/TKO Losses
2
3
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.5 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
25/54 fights
Chin rating based on
14/18 fights
Hughes
Serra
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
52
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R1
W · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
Hughes
Serra
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
61%
43%
6
KO / TKO Wins
2
5
Submission Wins
1
7
Decision Wins
4

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Hughes
Serra
Striking4.8 / 3.9Volume3.7 / 5.6Grappling2.9 / 2.5Wrestling2.0 / 1.8Submission2.8 / 1.4Pressure6.4 / 4.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.9
2.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.5
2.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.8
2.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.4
6.4
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.5
3.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.6
Hughes
Strike Zones
Serra
Hughes
Attacking
3HEAD0BODY0LEGS3 landed
Absorbing
4HEAD1BODY1LEGS6 absorbed
Serra
Attacking
4HEAD1BODY1LEGS6 landed
Absorbing
3HEAD0BODY0LEGS3 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Hughes targets the head (100% of attacks) — Serra absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Serra targets the head (67% of attacks) — Hughes absorbs 67% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Hughes
RND
Serra
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Hughes · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.0
0104.5W4.0W1.5L5.1W5.4W5.4W4.0W4.5W5.0W1.5L4.5W5.0W5.0W5.0W5.0W5.2W2.1L4.5W2.1L2.8L4.5W5.5W5.0W1.5L1.5L1999-092003-042006-052010-042011-09
WinLossTrend

Serra · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.8
0104.0L4.5W5.0W5.5L5.5L4.5W4.5W5.5L4.5W5.0W2.1L5.5L5.0W5.5L2001-052003-022006-112010-022010-09
WinLossTrend

Hughes · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Josh KoscheckRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 135: Jones vs Rampage · 2011-09
L · KO · R1
BJ PennRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 123: Rampage vs Machida · 2010-11
W · Sub · R1
Ricardo AlmeidaRating 5
Submission
UFC 117: Silva vs Sonnen · 2010-08
W · KO · R3
Renzo GracieRating 5.5
KO/TKO
UFC 112: Invincible · 2010-04
W · Dec · R3
Matt SerraRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 98: Evans vs Machida · 2009-05

Serra · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Chris LytleRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 119: Mir vs Cro Cop · 2010-09
W · KO · R1
Frank TriggRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC 109: Relentless · 2010-02
L · Dec · R3
Matt HughesRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 98: Evans vs Machida · 2009-05
L · KO · R2
Georges St-PierreRating 2.1
KO/TKO
UFC 83: Serra vs St-Pierre 2 · 2008-04
W · KO · R1
Georges St-PierreRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC 69: Shootout · 2007-04

News & Media

Matt Hughes · Matt Serra
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