UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo
Newark, USA
6 May 2023
Middleweight
VS
32%
Hawes
68%
Aliskerov
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 2:10
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Aliskerov
Aliskerov holds a meaningful edge at 68% per the CFR ratings — but Hawes has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 37 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Aliskerov has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 10 points.
Striking split: Hawes throws more volume but Aliskerov connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Hawes's chin rating of 12 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Hawes
Aliskerov
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
6'0"
77"+
Reach
76"
37
Age
+33
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Hawes
Aliskerov
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
32.2
68.7
44.8
Performance Avg
62.8
41
Quality of Victory
51
13
Momentum Score
88
Hawes
Aliskerov
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
3.8
2.9
59%
Strike Accuracy
62%
6.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
9.1
2 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
13
10
Body
6
3
Leg
1
RangeRange
17Distance19
0Clinch1
0Ground0
Hawes
Aliskerov
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.2
/ 10
0.6
/ 10
0.8
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.4
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Hawes
Aliskerov
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
12
78
3 consec. KOs
Verdict
Moderate
4
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
8/18 fights
Chin rating based on
6/19 fights
Hawes
Aliskerov
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
13
88
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
Last 5
Upcoming
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
Hawes
Aliskerov
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
75%
2
KO / TKO Wins
3
0
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Hawes
Aliskerov
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
9.1
1.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.6
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.4
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.7
5.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.6
HawesAliskerov
Strike Zones
Hawes
Attacking
17 landedAbsorbing
20 absorbedAliskerov
Attacking
20 landedAbsorbing
17 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Hawes targets the body (59% of attacks) — Aliskerov absorbs 59% of strikes there
🎯Aliskerov targets the head (65% of attacks) — Hawes absorbs 65% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Hawes
RND
Aliskerov
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Hawes · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.2WinLossTrend
Aliskerov · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
Hawes · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Brunno FerreiraRating 3.1KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker 2 · 2024-01
L · KO · R1
Ikram AliskerovRating 3.2KO/TKO
UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo · 2023-05
L · KO · R1
Roman DolidzeRating 2.9KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Allen · 2022-10
W · KO · R2
Deron WinnRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Emmett · 2022-06
L · KO · R1
Chris CurtisRating 2.2KO/TKO
UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2 · 2021-11
Aliskerov · Last 5
Upcoming
Brunno FerreiraUFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres · 2026-06
W · Dec · R3
JunYong ParkRating 5.6Decision
UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane · 2025-10
W · KO · R1
Andre MunizRating 5.9KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Machado Garry vs. Prates · 2025-04
L · KO · R1
Robert WhittakerRating 2.4KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Aliskerov · 2024-06
W · KO · R1
Warlley AlvesRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2 · 2023-10