UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader
Newark, USA
30 Jan 2016
Welterweight
VS
33%
Northcutt
67%
Barberena
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 3:06
SN
Sage Northcutt
"Super"
11 – 2
6'0"71" reachOrthodox30 yrs3-fight win streakWell-Rounded
CFR 21
Bryan
Bryan Barberena
"Bam Bam"
18 – 12
Well-Rounded4-fight slide37 yrsSouthpaw72" reach6'0"
CFR 43

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Barberena

Barberena holds a meaningful edge at 67% per the CFR ratings — but Northcutt has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 22 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Striking split: Barberena throws more volume but Northcutt connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Barberena has a chin rating of 10 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Northcutt
Barberena
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
6'0"
71"
Reach
+72"
30+
Age
37
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Northcutt
Barberena
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
21.3
43.3
54.0
Performance Avg
43.9
40
Quality of Victory
42
89
Momentum Score
76
Northcutt
Barberena
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.6
2.7
59%
Strike Accuracy
52%
4.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.4
2 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
15
0
Body
1
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
1Distance0
0Clinch0
1Ground16
Northcutt
Barberena
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
2.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.0
1.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.4
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Northcutt
Barberena
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
76
10
Never stopped
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
0
KO/TKO Losses
2
2
Sub Losses
3
—
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
9 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
8/13 fights
Chin rating based on
19/30 fights
Northcutt
Barberena
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
89
76
3-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R2
W · KO · R2
Northcutt
Barberena
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
56%
2
KO / TKO Wins
4
1
Submission Wins
1
3
Decision Wins
4

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Northcutt
Barberena
Striking4.8 / 5.4Volume5.5 / 4.5Grappling2.5 / 2.0Wrestling1.8 / 1.4Submission1.7 / 1.1Pressure5.8 / 5.3
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.4
2.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.0
1.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.4
1.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.1
5.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.3
5.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.5
Northcutt
Strike Zones
Barberena
Northcutt
Attacking
2HEAD0BODY0LEGS2 landed
Absorbing
15HEAD1BODY0LEGS16 absorbed
Barberena
Attacking
15HEAD1BODY0LEGS16 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD0BODY0LEGS2 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Northcutt targets the head (100% of attacks) — Barberena absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Barberena targets the head (94% of attacks) — Northcutt absorbs 94% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Northcutt
RND
Barberena
0/0R00/0

Northcutt · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.4
0105.0W5.2W3.2L4.5W3.3L4.5W4.5W5.2W2015-102016-012016-122018-022018-07
WinLossTrend

Barberena · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.0
0105.5W5.5L5.2W4.7W6.8L5.0W6.6L5.0W5.5L4.9L4.5W5.5L4.5W4.9W5.5W2.9L2.6L6.5L3.8L2014-122017-042020-092022-122024-03
WinLossTrend

Northcutt · Last 5

W · KO · R2
Zak OttowRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs. Ivanov · 2018-07
W · Dec · R3
Thibault GoutiRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Medeiros · 2018-02
W · Dec · R3
Michel QuinonesRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Pettis · 2017-11
L · Sub · R2
Mickey GallRating 3.3
Submission
UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson · 2016-12
W · Dec · R3
Enrique MarinRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 200: Tate vs Nunes · 2016-07

Barberena · Last 5

L · Sub · R2
Gerald MeerschaertRating 3.8
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Tuivasa vs. Tybura · 2024-03
L · Dec · R3
Makhmud MuradovRating 6.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura · 2023-07
L · Sub · R1
Gunnar NelsonRating 2.6
Submission
UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 · 2023-03
L · Sub · R2
Rafael Dos AnjosRating 2.9
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · 2022-12
W · KO · R2
Robbie LawlerRating 5.5
KO/TKO
UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier · 2022-07

News & Media

Sage Northcutt · Bryan Barberena
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