UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Lee
Atlantic City, USA
21 Apr 2018
Welterweight
VS
56%
Martin
44%
Nakamura
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Martin
This is a genuine toss-up — Martin at 56% vs Nakamura at 44% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Striking split: Martin throws more volume but Nakamura connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Martin's chin rating of 68 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Martin
Nakamura
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"+
Height
5'11"
73"
Reach
73"
36+
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Martin
Nakamura
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
17.5
13.7
45.3
Performance Avg
36.2
35
Quality of Victory
36
65
Momentum Score
26
Martin
Nakamura
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.9
0.8
37%
Strike Accuracy
37%
2.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.7
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
19
Head
2
2
Body
2
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
16Distance4
2Clinch0
3Ground0
Martin
Nakamura
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
—
4.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
5.2
2.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Martin
Nakamura
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
68
86
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
2
Sub Losses
0
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
15/23 fights
Chin rating based on
11/44 fights
Martin
Nakamura
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
65
26
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Martin
Nakamura
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
44%
50%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
3
Submission Wins
2
5
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Martin
Nakamura
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.7
4.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
5.2
2.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.6
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
5.0
4.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.6
5.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.7
MartinNakamura
Strike Zones
Martin
Attacking
21 landedAbsorbing
4 absorbedNakamura
Attacking
4 landedAbsorbing
21 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Martin targets the head (90% of attacks) — Nakamura absorbs 90% of strikes there
🎯Nakamura targets the head (50% of attacks) — Martin absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Martin
RND
Nakamura
0/0R00/0
Martin · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Nakamura · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.4WinLossTrend
Martin · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Neil MagnyRating 6.1Decision
UFC 250: Nunes vs. Spencer · 2020-06
W · Dec · R3
Ramazan EmeevRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Zabit vs. Kattar · 2019-11
L · Dec · R3
Demian MaiaRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Dos Santos · 2019-06
W · Dec · R3
Sergio MoraesRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dos Santos · 2019-03
W · Sub · R3
Jake MatthewsRating 6.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs. Tuivasa · 2018-12
Nakamura · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Sultan AlievRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Oleinik · 2019-04
W · Dec · R3
Salim TouahriRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs. Tuivasa · 2018-12
L · Dec · R3
Anthony Rocco MartinRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Lee · 2018-04
W · Dec · R3
Alex MoronoRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Saint Preux vs. Okami · 2017-09
L · Dec · R3
Elizeu Zaleski dos SantosRating 6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lineker vs. Dodson · 2016-10