UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Borralho
Las Vegas, USA
24 Aug 2024
Middleweight
VS
94%
Reese
6%
Medina
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Reese
Reese is a strong favourite at 94% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 52 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Reese has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 40 points.
Striking split: Medina throws more volume but Reese connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Reese's chin rating of 54 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Medina has a chin rating of 42 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Reese
Medina
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'4"+
Height
6'0"
77"+
Reach
74"
32+
Age
35
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
Reese
Medina
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
55.0
3.4
46.8
Performance Avg
0.0
40
Quality of Victory
0
88
Momentum Score
0
Reese
Medina
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.5
1.6
50%
Strike Accuracy
46%
3.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
9
Head
7
3
Body
3
3
Leg
0
RangeRange
11Distance8
1Clinch1
3Ground1
Reese
Medina
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
3.2
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
2.2
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
2.5
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Reese
Medina
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
54
42
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
8/13 fights
Chin rating based on
4/18 fights
Reese
Medina
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
88
0
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
Upcoming
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Reese
Medina
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
0%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Reese
Medina
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
3.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
2.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
2.5
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
5.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
ReeseMedina
Strike Zones
Reese
Attacking
15 landedAbsorbing
10 absorbedMedina
Attacking
10 landedAbsorbing
15 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Reese targets the head (60% of attacks) — Medina absorbs 60% of strikes there
🎯Medina targets the head (70% of attacks) — Reese absorbs 70% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Reese
RND
Medina
0/0R00/0
Reese · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.6WinLossTrend
Medina · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.0WinLossTrend
Reese · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Michel PereiraRating 6.1Decision
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L · KO · R1
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UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Borralho · 2024-08