UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3
New Orleans, USA
19 Jul 2025
Bantamweight
VS
47%
Phillips
53%
Oliveira
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Oliveira
This is a genuine toss-up — Phillips at 47% vs Oliveira at 53% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Oliveira has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Phillips
Oliveira
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"
Height
+5'9"
72"+
Reach
70"
30
Age
30
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
Phillips
Oliveira
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
48.8
55.0
44.0
Performance Avg
50.8
33
Quality of Victory
31
58
Momentum Score
76
Phillips
Oliveira
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
2.2
38%
Strike Accuracy
47%
2.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.1
1 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
13
Head
13
3
Body
12
0
Leg
8
RangeRange
16Distance30
0Clinch3
0Ground0
Phillips
Oliveira
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.9
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.8
2.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.3
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Phillips
Oliveira
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
92
88
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
1
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
10/17 fights
Chin rating based on
5/27 fights
Phillips
Oliveira
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
58
76
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R3
Phillips
Oliveira
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
25%
1
KO / TKO Wins
1
1
Submission Wins
0
4
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Phillips
Oliveira
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.1
2.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.8
2.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.3
1.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.2
6.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.6
PhillipsOliveira
Strike Zones
Phillips
Attacking
16 landedAbsorbing
33 absorbedOliveira
Attacking
33 landedAbsorbing
16 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Phillips targets the head (81% of attacks) — Oliveira absorbs 81% of strikes there
🎯Oliveira targets the head (39% of attacks) — Phillips absorbs 39% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Phillips
RND
Oliveira
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Phillips · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.6WinLossTrend
Oliveira · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.2WinLossTrend
Phillips · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Charles JourdainRating 6.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malott · 2026-04
L · Dec · R3
Vinicius OliveiraRating 6.5Decision
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
L · Dec · R3
Rob FontRating 6.7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira · 2024-10
W · Dec · R3
Pedro MunhozRating 5Decision
UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · 2024-03
W · Dec · R3
Raoni BarcelosRating 5.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Font · 2023-08
Oliveira · Last 5
L · Sub · R2
Mario BautistaRating 3.2Submission
UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira · 2026-02
W · Dec · R3
Kyler PhillipsRating 5.2Decision
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
W · Dec · R3
Said NurmagomedovRating 5.9Decision
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Imavov · 2025-02
W · Dec · R3
Ricky SimonRating 5.2Decision
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 · 2024-06
W · KO · R3
Benardo SopajRating 6.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev · 2024-03