METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
The Ultimate Fighter: Heavy Hitters Finale
Las Vegas, USA
30 Nov 2018
Lightweight
VS
80%
Roberts
20%
Horcher
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 4:50
★ Official Result
Roosevelt RobertswinsSubmissionR1 · 4:50
def. Darrell Horcher · The Ultimate Fighter: Heavy Hitters Finale
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Roberts
→
Actual result
Roberts wins
Submission · R1
Pre-fight analysis
Roberts is a strong favourite at 80% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 30 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Roberts has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 13 points.
Risk flags
Roberts's chin rating of 50 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Horcher has a chin rating of 64 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
RobertsHorcher
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Roberts
Horcher
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"+
Height
5'10"
73"+
Reach
70"
32+
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Roberts
Horcher
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
39.9
9.8
40.8
Performance Avg
25.0
38
Quality of Victory
25
53
Momentum Score
33
Roberts
Horcher
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.9
/ 10
0.5
/ 10
4.8
Style: Pressure
0.8
4.9
Style: Volume
8.5
0 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
0 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
10
Head
5
4
Body
5
2
Leg
0
RangeRange
15Distance8
1Clinch2
0Ground0
Roberts
Horcher
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
5.2
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
3.6
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
5.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
2
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Roberts
Horcher
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
50
64
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
2
Sub Losses
1
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
10/18 fights
Chin rating based on
4/17 fights
Roberts
Horcher
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
53
33
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R3
Upcoming
L · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Roberts
Horcher
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
2
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Roberts
Horcher
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.5
5.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
3.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
5.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.8
4.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.5
RobertsHorcher
Strike Zones
Roberts
Attacking
16 landedAbsorbing
10 absorbedHorcher
Attacking
10 landedAbsorbing
16 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Roberts targets the head (63% of attacks) — Horcher absorbs 63% of strikes there
🎯Horcher targets the head (50% of attacks) — Roberts absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Roberts
RND
Horcher
0/0R00/0
Roberts · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Ludovit KleinDecision
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L · KO · R3
Ignacio BahamondesKO/TKO
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Upcoming
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Horcher · Last 4
L · Sub · R1
Roosevelt RobertsSubmission
The Ultimate Fighter: Heavy Hitters Finale · 2018-11
L · Dec · R3
Scott HoltzmanDecision
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W · Dec · R3
Devin PowellDecision
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L · KO · R2
Khabib NurmagomedovKO/TKO
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