The Ultimate Fighter: Heavy Hitters Finale
Las Vegas, USA
30 Nov 2018
Lightweight
VS
80%
Roberts
20%
Horcher
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 4:50
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Roberts
Roberts is a strong favourite at 80% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 30 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Roberts has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 13 points.
Roberts has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Roberts's chin rating of 50 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Horcher has a chin rating of 64 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Roberts
Horcher
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"+
Height
5'10"
73"+
Reach
70"
32+
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Roberts
Horcher
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
39.9
9.8
40.8
Performance Avg
25.0
38
Quality of Victory
25
53
Momentum Score
33
Roberts
Horcher
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
0.7
42%
Strike Accuracy
38%
0.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.5
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
10
Head
5
4
Body
5
2
Leg
0
RangeRange
15Distance8
1Clinch2
0Ground0
Roberts
Horcher
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
—
5.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.4
3.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Roberts
Horcher
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
50
64
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
2
Sub Losses
1
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
10/18 fights
Chin rating based on
4/17 fights
Roberts
Horcher
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
53
33
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R3
Upcoming
L · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Roberts
Horcher
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
2
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Roberts
Horcher
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.5
5.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
3.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
5.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.8
4.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.5
RobertsHorcher
Strike Zones
Roberts
Attacking
16 landedAbsorbing
10 absorbedHorcher
Attacking
10 landedAbsorbing
16 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Roberts targets the head (63% of attacks) — Horcher absorbs 63% of strikes there
🎯Horcher targets the head (50% of attacks) — Roberts absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Roberts
RND
Horcher
0/0R00/0
Roberts · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Horcher · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.6WinLossTrend
Roberts · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Ludovit KleinRating 6.7Decision
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Scott HoltzmanRating 5.5Decision
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