METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 196: McGregor vs Diaz
Las Vegas, USA
5 Mar 2016
Featherweight
VS
57%
Elkins
43%
Skelly
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Darren ElkinswinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Chas Skelly · UFC 196: McGregor vs Diaz
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Elkins
→
Actual result
Elkins wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Elkins at 57% vs Skelly at 43% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 11 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Skelly has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 11 points.
Elkins has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Elkins's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
ElkinsSkelly
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Elkins
Skelly
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
+5'11"
71"
Reach
+72"
42
Age
+41
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Elkins
Skelly
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
44.7
34.0
46.3
Performance Avg
56.6
35
Quality of Victory
46
66
Momentum Score
75
Elkins
Skelly
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.3
0.6
38%
Strike Accuracy
36%
3.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.0
4 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
24
Head
2
3
Body
0
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
10Distance2
5Clinch0
13Ground0
Elkins
Skelly
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.4
2.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
4.6
1.9
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.2
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Elkins
Skelly
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
74
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
4
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
30/41 fights
Chin rating based on
12/22 fights
Elkins
Skelly
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
66
75
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
Upcoming
L · KO · R3
W · Sub · R2
Elkins
Skelly
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
37%
75%
4
KO / TKO Wins
2
3
Submission Wins
4
12
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Elkins
Skelly
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.0
2.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.6
1.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.2
1.6
Submission
Submission attack frequency
5.0
4.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.4
6.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.5
ElkinsSkelly
Strike Zones
Elkins
Attacking
28 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedSkelly
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
28 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Elkins targets the head (86% of attacks) — Skelly absorbs 86% of strikes there
🎯Skelly targets the head (100% of attacks) — Elkins absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Elkins
RND
Skelly
0/0R00/0
Elkins · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Skelly · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Elkins · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Julian ErosaRating 1.7KO/TKO
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