UFC 196: McGregor vs Diaz
Las Vegas, USA
5 Mar 2016
Featherweight
VS
57%
Elkins
43%
Skelly
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Darren
Darren Elkins
"The Damage"
29 – 12
5'10"71" reachOrthodox42 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 45
CS
Chas Skelly
"The Scrapper"
19 – 3
Well-Rounded2-fight win streak41 yrsOrthodox72" reach5'11"
CFR 34

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Elkins

This is a genuine toss-up — Elkins at 57% vs Skelly at 43% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 11 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Skelly has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 11 points.

Elkins has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Elkins's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Elkins
Skelly
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
+5'11"
71"
Reach
+72"
42
Age
+41
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Elkins
Skelly
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
44.7
34.0
46.3
Performance Avg
56.6
35
Quality of Victory
46
66
Momentum Score
75
Elkins
Skelly
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
0.6
38%
Strike Accuracy
36%
3.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.0
4 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
24
Head
2
3
Body
0
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
10Distance2
5Clinch0
13Ground0
Elkins
Skelly
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.4
2.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
4.6
1.9
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.2
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Elkins
Skelly
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
74
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
4
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
30/41 fights
Chin rating based on
12/22 fights
Elkins
Skelly
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
66
75
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
Upcoming
L · KO · R3
W · Sub · R2
Elkins
Skelly
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
37%
75%
4
KO / TKO Wins
2
3
Submission Wins
4
12
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Elkins
Skelly
Striking3.4 / 4.0Volume6.3 / 3.5Grappling2.8 / 4.6Wrestling1.9 / 3.2Submission1.6 / 5.0Pressure4.5 / 7.4
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.0
2.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.6
1.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.2
1.6
Submission
Submission attack frequency
5.0
4.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.4
6.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.5
Elkins
Strike Zones
Skelly
Elkins
Attacking
24HEAD3BODY1LEGS28 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD0BODY0LEGS2 absorbed
Skelly
Attacking
2HEAD0BODY0LEGS2 landed
Absorbing
24HEAD3BODY1LEGS28 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Elkins targets the head (86% of attacks) — Skelly absorbs 86% of strikes there
🎯Skelly targets the head (100% of attacks) — Elkins absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Elkins
RND
Skelly
0/0R00/0

Elkins · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0105.0W2.9L4.5W4.5W4.5W4.5W5.0W1.5L4.5W6.0L4.5W5.5L4.5W4.5W4.5W5.5W4.5W5.3W7.0L4.0L5.5L6.2L5.5W5.2W2.0L4.5W6.0L5.5W5.4W1.7L2010-032013-082017-072021-122025-04
WinLossTrend

Skelly · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.0
0105.5L5.0W4.5W5.2W5.2W6.0L5.0W5.2W4.0L4.5W5.2W2014-042015-022016-092019-092022-02
WinLossTrend

Elkins · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Julian ErosaRating 1.7
KO/TKO
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W · Dec · R3
Daniel PinedaRating 5.4
Decision
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W · Sub · R3
TJ BrownRating 5.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Yusuff vs. Barboza · 2023-10
L · Dec · R3
Jonathan PearceRating 6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · 2022-12
W · Dec · R3
Tristan ConnellyRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Vera · 2022-04

Skelly · Last 5

W · KO · R2
Mark StrieglRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Hill · 2022-02
W · Dec · R3
Jordan GriffinRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Gaethje · 2019-09
Upcoming
Bobby Moffett
UFC Fight Night: Korean Zombie vs. Rodriguez · 2018-11
L · KO · R3
Jason KnightRating 4
KO/TKO
UFC 211: Miocic vs. Dos Santos · 2017-05
W · Sub · R2
Chris GruetzemacherRating 5.2
Submission
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News & Media

Darren Elkins · Chas Skelly
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