UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Yan
Las Vegas, USA
1 Oct 2022
Women's Strawweight
VS
52%
Dern
48%
Xiaonan
Win Probability
Decision
Round 5 · 5:00
Mackenzie
Mackenzie Dern
16 – 5
5'4"63" reachOrthodox33 yrs3-fight win streakWell-Rounded
CFR 60
Yan
Yan Xiaonan
19 – 5
Well-Rounded36 yrsOrthodox63" reach5'5"
CFR 54

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Dern

This is a genuine toss-up — Dern at 52% vs Xiaonan at 48% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Dern has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 10 points.

Xiaonan has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Dern
Xiaonan
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'4"
Height
+5'5"
63"
Reach
63"
33+
Age
36
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Dern
Xiaonan
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
59.6
54.2
51.1
Performance Avg
45.0
39
Quality of Victory
29
94
Momentum Score
100
Dern
Xiaonan
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
1.6
44%
Strike Accuracy
45%
1.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.5
0 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
7
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
3Distance5
0Clinch1
1Ground1
Dern
Xiaonan
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
—
5.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.1
3.5
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.5
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Dern
Xiaonan
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
70
72
Moderate
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
6 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
16/21 fights
Chin rating based on
13/24 fights
Dern
Xiaonan
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
94
100
3-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
W · Dec · R5
W · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R5
Dern
Xiaonan
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
46%
11%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
5
Submission Wins
0
6
Decision Wins
8

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Dern
Xiaonan
Striking1.4 / 2.5Volume5.7 / 8.5Grappling5.0 / 2.1Wrestling3.5 / 1.5Submission4.5 / 0.0Pressure5.2 / 2.9
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.5
5.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.1
3.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.5
4.5
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
2.9
5.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.5
Dern
Strike Zones
Xiaonan
Dern
Attacking
4HEAD0BODY0LEGS4 landed
Absorbing
7HEAD0BODY0LEGS7 absorbed
Xiaonan
Attacking
7HEAD0BODY0LEGS7 landed
Absorbing
4HEAD0BODY0LEGS4 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Dern targets the head (100% of attacks) — Xiaonan absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Xiaonan targets the head (100% of attacks) — Dern absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Dern
RND
Xiaonan
0/0R00/0

Dern · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.2
0104.5W5.0W5.6L5.0W5.0W5.2W5.0W6.2L5.2W6.5L4.6W3.5L6.6L5.0W5.4W5.2W2018-032020-092022-042024-022025-10
WinLossTrend

Xiaonan · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.1
0104.5W4.5W4.5W4.6W4.5W4.5W3.0L6.2L5.7W5.8W7.3L5.2W6.2L2017-112020-022022-102025-04
WinLossTrend

Dern · Last 5

W · Dec · R5
Virna JandirobaRating 5.2
Decision
UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane · 2025-10
W · Sub · R3
Amanda RibasRating 5.4
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 · 2025-01
W · Dec · R3
Loopy GodinezRating 5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · 2024-08
L · Dec · R3
Amanda LemosRating 6.6
Decision
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · 2024-02
L · KO · R2
Jessica AndradeRating 3.5
KO/TKO
UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira · 2023-11

Xiaonan · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Virna JandirobaRating 6.2
Decision
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · 2025-04
W · Dec · R3
Tabatha RicciRating 5.2
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Figueiredo · 2024-11
L · Dec · R5
Zhang WeiliRating 7.3
Decision
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04
W · KO · R1
Jessica AndradeRating 5.8
KO/TKO
UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo · 2023-05
W · Dec · R5
Mackenzie DernRating 5.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Yan · 2022-10

News & Media

Mackenzie Dern · Yan Xiaonan
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