METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Yan
Las Vegas, USA
1 Oct 2022
Women's Strawweight
VS
54%
Dern
46%
Xiaonan
Win Probability
Decision
Round 5 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Yan XiaonanwinsDecisionR5 · 5:00
def. Mackenzie Dern · UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Yan
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Dern
→
Actual result
Xiaonan wins
Decision · R5
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Dern at 54% vs Xiaonan at 46% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 9 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Dern has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 12 points.
Risk flags
Xiaonan has a chin rating of 50 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
DernXiaonan
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Dern
Xiaonan
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'4"
Height
+5'5"
63"
Reach
63"
33+
Age
37
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Dern
Xiaonan
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
60.4
51.3
52.7
Performance Avg
43.0
41
Quality of Victory
29
94
Momentum Score
100
Dern
Xiaonan
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.4
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
5.0
Style: Pressure
2.7
6.1
Style: Volume
8.4
0 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
1 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
7
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
3Distance5
0Clinch1
1Ground1
Dern
Xiaonan
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
4.7
/ 10
2.1
/ 10
3.3
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.5
4.2
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
5
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Dern
Xiaonan
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
70
50
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
5 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
17/21 fights
Chin rating based on
14/24 fights
Dern
Xiaonan
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
94
100
4-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
W · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · KO · R1
Dern
Xiaonan
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
42%
11%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
5
Submission Wins
0
7
Decision Wins
8
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Dern
Xiaonan
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.4
4.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.1
3.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.5
4.2
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
2.7
6.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.4
DernXiaonan
Strike Zones
Dern
Attacking
4 landedAbsorbing
7 absorbedXiaonan
Attacking
7 landedAbsorbing
4 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Dern targets the head (100% of attacks) — Xiaonan absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Xiaonan targets the head (100% of attacks) — Dern absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Dern
RND
Xiaonan
0/0R00/0
Dern · Last 5
W · Dec · R5
Gillian RobertsonDecision
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W · Dec · R5
Virna JandirobaDecision
UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane · 2025-10
W · Sub · R3
Amanda RibasSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 · 2025-01
W · Dec · R3
Loopy GodinezDecision
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · 2024-08
L · Dec · R3
Amanda LemosDecision
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · 2024-02
Xiaonan · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Denise GomesKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song · 2026-08
L · Dec · R3
Virna JandirobaDecision
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · 2025-04
W · Dec · R3
Tabatha RicciDecision
UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Figueiredo · 2024-11
L · Dec · R5
Zhang WeiliDecision
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04
W · KO · R1
Jessica AndradeKO/TKO
UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo · 2023-05