UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Cowboy
Pittsburgh, USA
21 Feb 2016
Middleweight
VS
96%
Smith
4%
Guimaraes
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Smith
Smith is a strong favourite at 96% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 56 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Smith has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 50 points.
Guimaraes has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Smith's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Smith
Guimaraes
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'4"+
Height
6'0"
76"
Reach
37+
Age
44
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Smith
Guimaraes
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
58.3
2.4
50.7
Performance Avg
0.0
50
Quality of Victory
0
100
Momentum Score
0
Smith
Guimaraes
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
1.5
52%
Strike Accuracy
66%
4.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
5 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
27
1
Body
10
0
Leg
2
RangeRange
5Distance20
1Clinch4
0Ground15
Smith
Guimaraes
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
3.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
2.4
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Smith
Guimaraes
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
86
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Never stopped
6
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.5 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
25/60 fights
Chin rating based on
2/16 fights
Smith
Guimaraes
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
0
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · KO · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R3
L · Dec · R3
Smith
Guimaraes
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
77%
0%
5
KO / TKO Wins
0
5
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Smith
Guimaraes
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
3.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
2.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
3.9
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
2.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
SmithGuimaraes
Strike Zones
Smith
Attacking
6 landedAbsorbing
39 absorbedGuimaraes
Attacking
39 landedAbsorbing
6 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Smith targets the head (83% of attacks) — Guimaraes absorbs 83% of strikes there
🎯Guimaraes targets the head (69% of attacks) — Smith absorbs 69% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Smith
RND
Guimaraes
0/0R00/0
Smith · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Guimaraes · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.3WinLossTrend
Smith · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Zhang MingyangRating 3.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Machado Garry vs. Prates · 2025-04
L · KO · R2
Dominick ReyesRating 3.8KO/TKO
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
L · Dec · R3
Roman DolidzeRating 6.9Decision
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 · 2024-06
W · Sub · R1
Vitor PetrinoRating 6.1Submission
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · 2024-05
L · KO · R3
Khalil Rountree Jr.Rating 4.9KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutierrez · 2023-12
Guimaraes · Last 2
L · Sub · R3
Antonio Carlos JuniorRating 4Submission
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Johnson · 2016-09
L · Dec · R3
Anthony SmithRating 6.7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Cowboy · 2016-02