UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Alvarez
Las Vegas, USA
7 Jul 2016
Lightweight
VS
67%
Duffy
33%
Clarke
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 0:25
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Duffy
Duffy holds a meaningful edge at 67% per the CFR ratings — but Clarke has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 11 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Duffy has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 11 points.
Duffy has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Duffy's chin rating of 62 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Clarke has a chin rating of 40 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Duffy
Clarke
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
5'10"
73"
Reach
73"
38+
Age
40
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Duffy
Clarke
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
21.7
10.9
49.0
Performance Avg
33.8
48
Quality of Victory
37
100
Momentum Score
10
Duffy
Clarke
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
1.2
36%
Strike Accuracy
36%
3.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.6
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
0
0
Body
0
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
1Distance1
0Clinch0
2Ground0
Duffy
Clarke
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
4.6
Grappling Style Score (/10)
5.2
3.2
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Duffy
Clarke
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
62
40
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
8/21 fights
Chin rating based on
7/16 fights
Duffy
Clarke
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
10
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R2
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
Duffy
Clarke
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
75%
50%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
2
Submission Wins
1
1
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Duffy
Clarke
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.6
4.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
5.2
3.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.6
5.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
5.0
6.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.4
3.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.6
DuffyClarke
Strike Zones
Duffy
Attacking
3 landedAbsorbing
1 absorbedClarke
Attacking
1 landedAbsorbing
3 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Duffy targets the head (100% of attacks) — Clarke absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Clarke targets the legs (100% of attacks) — Duffy absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Duffy
RND
Clarke
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Duffy · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Clarke · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.1WinLossTrend
Duffy · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Joel AlvarezRating 2.8Submission
UFC Fight Night: Figueiredo vs. Benavidez 2 · 2020-07
L · Dec · R3
Marc DiakieseRating 5.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Till vs. Masvidal · 2019-03
L · KO · R2
James VickRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC 217: Bisping vs. St-Pierre · 2017-11
W · Dec · R3
Reza MadadiRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Manuwa vs. Anderson · 2017-03
W · Sub · R1
Mitch ClarkeRating 5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Alvarez · 2016-07
Clarke · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Alex WhiteRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC 215: Nunes vs Shevchenko 2 · 2017-09
L · Sub · R1
Joe DuffyRating 1.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Alvarez · 2016-07
L · Dec · R3
Michael ChiesaRating 6.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Mendes vs Lamas · 2015-04
W · Sub · R2
Al IaquintaRating 5.2Submission
UFC 173: Barao vs Dillashaw · 2014-05
W · Dec · R3
John MaguireRating 4.5Decision
UFC 161: Evans vs Henderson · 2013-06