METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
★ Championship Bout · Interim Lightweight
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje
Jacksonville, USA
9 May 2020
Interim Lightweight
VS
40%
Ferguson
60%
Gaethje
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 5 · 3:39
★ Official Result
Justin GaethjewinsKO/TKOR5 · 3:39
def. Tony Ferguson · UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Gaethje
→
Actual result
Gaethje wins
KO/TKO · R5
Pre-fight analysis
Gaethje holds a meaningful edge at 60% per the CFR ratings — but Ferguson has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 22 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Gaethje has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 15 points.
Risk flags
Ferguson's chin rating of 12 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Gaethje has a chin rating of 10 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
FergusonGaethje
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Ferguson
Gaethje
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
5'11"
76"+
Reach
70"
42
Age
+37
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Ferguson
Gaethje
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
45.2
67.6
54.2
Performance Avg
65.5
49
Quality of Victory
63
52
Momentum Score
100
Ferguson
Gaethje
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.3
/ 10
7.7
/ 10
6.1
Style: Pressure
6.5
3.4
Style: Volume
4.3
3 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
7 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
29
5
Body
1
5
Leg
4
RangeRange
14Distance34
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Ferguson
Gaethje
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.8
/ 10
0.9
/ 10
2.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.6
4.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
6
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Ferguson
Gaethje
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
12
10
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
2
KO/TKO Losses
3
3
Sub Losses
2
Avg R3.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R4.0 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
24/37 fights
Chin rating based on
16/32 fights
Ferguson
Gaethje
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
52
100
8-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 🔥 win streak
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
L · Sub · R4
L · KO · R2
Last 5
W · KO · R4
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R5
W · KO · R2
Ferguson
Gaethje
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
60%
64%
3
KO / TKO Wins
7
6
Submission Wins
0
6
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Ferguson
Gaethje
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
7.7
3.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.9
2.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.6
4.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.5
3.4
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.3
FergusonGaethje
Strike Zones
Ferguson
Attacking
14 landedAbsorbing
34 absorbedGaethje
Attacking
34 landedAbsorbing
14 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Ferguson targets the body (36% of attacks) — Gaethje absorbs 36% of strikes there
🎯Gaethje targets the head (85% of attacks) — Ferguson absorbs 85% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Ferguson
RND
Gaethje
0/0R00/0
Ferguson · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Michael ChiesaSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · 2024-08
L · Dec · R3
Paddy PimblettDecision
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
L · Sub · R3
King GreenSubmission
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07
L · Sub · R4
Nate DiazSubmission
UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson · 2022-09
L · KO · R2
Michael ChandlerKO/TKO
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · 2022-05
Gaethje · Last 5
W · KO · R4
Ilia TopuriaKO/TKO
UFC Freedom 250 · 2026-06
W · Dec · R5
Paddy PimblettDecision
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett · 2026-01
W · Dec · R3
Rafael FizievDecision
UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev · 2025-03
L · KO · R5
Max HollowayKO/TKO
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04
W · KO · R2
Dustin PoirierKO/TKO
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07