★ Championship Bout · Interim Lightweight
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje
Jacksonville, USA
9 May 2020
Interim Lightweight
VS
41%
Ferguson
59%
Gaethje
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 5 · 3:39
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Gaethje
This is a genuine toss-up — Ferguson at 41% vs Gaethje at 59% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 21 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Gaethje has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 13 points.
Gaethje has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Ferguson's chin rating of 12 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Gaethje has a chin rating of 10 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Ferguson
Gaethje
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
5'11"
76"+
Reach
70"
42
Age
+37
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Ferguson
Gaethje
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
45.2
66.1
54.2
Performance Avg
63.6
49
Quality of Victory
62
52
Momentum Score
100
Ferguson
Gaethje
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.9
2.1
47%
Strike Accuracy
62%
3.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
7.3
3 KOs
KO Finishes
6 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
29
5
Body
1
5
Leg
4
RangeRange
14Distance34
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Ferguson
Gaethje
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
3.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.0
2.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Ferguson
Gaethje
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
12
10
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
2
KO/TKO Losses
3
3
Sub Losses
2
Avg R3.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R4.0 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
24/37 fights
Chin rating based on
16/32 fights
Ferguson
Gaethje
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
52
100
8-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
L · Sub · R4
L · KO · R2
Last 5
Upcoming
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R5
W · KO · R2
Ferguson
Gaethje
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
60%
60%
3
KO / TKO Wins
6
6
Submission Wins
0
6
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Ferguson
Gaethje
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
7.3
3.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.0
2.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.7
4.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.2
3.4
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.5
FergusonGaethje
Strike Zones
Ferguson
Attacking
14 landedAbsorbing
34 absorbedGaethje
Attacking
34 landedAbsorbing
14 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Ferguson targets the body (36% of attacks) — Gaethje absorbs 36% of strikes there
🎯Gaethje targets the head (85% of attacks) — Ferguson absorbs 85% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Ferguson
RND
Gaethje
0/0R00/0
Ferguson · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Gaethje · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Ferguson · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Michael ChiesaRating 2.3Submission
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · 2024-08
L · Dec · R3
Paddy PimblettRating 7.2Decision
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
L · Sub · R3
King GreenRating 4.7Submission
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07
L · Sub · R4
Nate DiazRating 3.4Submission
UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson · 2022-09
L · KO · R2
Michael ChandlerRating 3.5KO/TKO
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · 2022-05
Gaethje · Last 5
Upcoming
Ilia TopuriaUFC Freedom 250 · 2026-06
W · Dec · R5
Paddy PimblettRating 6.2Decision
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett · 2026-01
W · Dec · R3
Rafael FizievRating 5.5Decision
UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev · 2025-03
L · KO · R5
Max HollowayRating 5.1KO/TKO
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04
W · KO · R2
Dustin PoirierRating 6.4KO/TKO
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07