UFC Fight Night: Magny vs Gastelum
Monterrey, Mexico
21 Nov 2015
Welterweight
VS
53%
Magny
47%
Gastelum
Win Probability
Decision
Round 5 · 5:00
Neil
Neil Magny
"The Haitian Sensation"
31 – 15
6'3"80" reachOrthodox38 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 48
Kelvin
Kelvin Gastelum
21 – 11
Well-Rounded34 yrsSouthpaw71" reach5'9"
CFR 41

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Magny

This is a genuine toss-up — Magny at 53% vs Gastelum at 47% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Magny has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Magny's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Gastelum has a chin rating of 38 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Magny
Gastelum
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"+
Height
5'9"
80"+
Reach
71"
38
Age
+34
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Magny
Gastelum
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
47.5
41.4
47.4
Performance Avg
47.4
36
Quality of Victory
42
75
Momentum Score
28
Magny
Gastelum
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.5
1.3
50%
Strike Accuracy
43%
4.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.3
7 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
10
Head
8
0
Body
2
0
Leg
3
RangeRange
8Distance9
2Clinch1
0Ground3
Magny
Gastelum
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.3
2.4
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.7
1.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.9
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Magny
Gastelum
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
38
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Never stopped
4
KO/TKO Losses
0
6
Sub Losses
4
Avg R1.8 stoppage
KO round context
—
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
37/46 fights
Chin rating based on
26/32 fights
Magny
Gastelum
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
75
28
L · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R3
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
Magny
Gastelum
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
42%
36%
7
KO / TKO Wins
3
3
Submission Wins
2
14
Decision Wins
9

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Magny
Gastelum
Striking4.2 / 3.3Volume6.0 / 6.3Grappling2.4 / 2.7Wrestling1.7 / 1.9Submission1.3 / 1.4Pressure4.9 / 4.2
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.3
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.7
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.9
1.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.4
4.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.2
6.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.3
Magny
Strike Zones
Gastelum
Magny
Attacking
10HEAD0BODY0LEGS10 landed
Absorbing
8HEAD2BODY3LEGS13 absorbed
Gastelum
Attacking
8HEAD2BODY3LEGS13 landed
Absorbing
10HEAD0BODY0LEGS10 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Magny targets the head (100% of attacks) — Gastelum absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Gastelum targets the head (62% of attacks) — Magny absorbs 62% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Magny
RND
Gastelum
0/0R00/0
0/0R20/0

Magny · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0104.5W1.5L5.5L4.5W4.6W5.2W4.5W5.5W5.5W5.2W2.8L4.5W4.8W5.5W1.5L4.5W1.7L4.5W5.0W3.9L5.3W4.5W4.8W6.3L5.5W5.1W4.8L6.4W1.7L5.6W7.0L7.3W3.6L3.7L5.8W6.5W3.7L2013-022015-082020-032023-082025-12
WinLossTrend

Gastelum · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.1
0104.5W5.0W4.5W4.5W5.0W5.5L5.2W6.1L4.5W5.5W3.6L5.0W4.5W6.9L5.5L2.4L4.5W6.4L6.5L5.2W5.1L5.4W7.5L4.5W3.0L2013-042015-112019-112024-062026-04
WinLossTrend

Magny · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
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Submission
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Submission
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KO/TKO
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KO/TKO
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KO/TKO
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Gastelum · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
Vicente LuqueRating 3
Submission
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Dustin StoltzfusRating 4.5
Decision
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Joe PyferRating 7.5
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W · Dec · R3
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Submission
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News & Media

Neil Magny · Kelvin Gastelum
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