UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson
Las Vegas, USA
10 Sept 2022
Catch Weight
VS
49%
Jingliang
51%
Rodriguez
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Li
Li Jingliang
"The Leech"
19 – 9
6'0"71" reachOrthodox38 yrs2-fight slideStriker
CFR 51
Daniel
Daniel Rodriguez
"D-Rod"
20 – 5
Well-Rounded3-fight win streak39 yrsSouthpaw74" reach6'1"
CFR 53

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Rodriguez

This is a genuine toss-up — Jingliang at 49% vs Rodriguez at 51% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Jingliang has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 11 points.

Rodriguez has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Jingliang's chin rating of 46 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Rodriguez has a chin rating of 62 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Jingliang
Rodriguez
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
+6'1"
71"
Reach
+74"
38+
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Jingliang
Rodriguez
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
50.8
53.3
53.1
Performance Avg
50.7
48
Quality of Victory
37
69
Momentum Score
70
Jingliang
Rodriguez
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.0
2.9
44%
Strike Accuracy
50%
8.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.4
8 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
10
Head
25
10
Body
6
7
Leg
3
RangeRange
27Distance34
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Jingliang
Rodriguez
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
—
0.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.2
0.5
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Jingliang
Rodriguez
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
46
62
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
2
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
4 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
18/28 fights
Chin rating based on
14/25 fights
Jingliang
Rodriguez
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
69
70
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 🔥 win streak
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
L · Sub · R1
W · KO · R1
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Jingliang
Rodriguez
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
73%
40%
8
KO / TKO Wins
3
0
Submission Wins
1
3
Decision Wins
6

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Jingliang
Rodriguez
Striking8.5 / 4.4Volume3.4 / 6.2Grappling0.7 / 2.2Wrestling0.5 / 1.6Submission0.0 / 1.0Pressure6.9 / 4.9
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
8.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.4
0.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.2
0.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.6
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.0
6.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.9
3.4
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.2
Jingliang
Strike Zones
Rodriguez
Jingliang
Attacking
10HEAD10BODY7LEGS27 landed
Absorbing
25HEAD6BODY3LEGS34 absorbed
Rodriguez
Attacking
25HEAD6BODY3LEGS34 landed
Absorbing
10HEAD10BODY7LEGS27 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Jingliang targets the head (37% of attacks) — Rodriguez absorbs 37% of strikes there
🎯Rodriguez targets the head (74% of attacks) — Jingliang absorbs 74% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Jingliang
RND
Rodriguez
0/0R00/0

Jingliang · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.2
0104.5W5.5L5.0W4.0L5.0W5.2W4.5W5.0W6.5L4.5W5.5W6.0W6.1L5.5W3.4L6.2W6.4L5.0L2014-052017-012018-112022-072024-08
WinLossTrend

Rodriguez · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.0
0105.3W5.3W5.0W5.8L4.5W5.0W4.5W5.3W4.6L3.0L5.8L4.5W6.0W5.1W2020-022021-042022-112025-052025-07
WinLossTrend

Jingliang · Last 5

L · KO · R2
Carlos PratesRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya · 2024-08
L · Dec · R3
Daniel RodriguezRating 6.4
Decision
UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson · 2022-09
W · KO · R2
Muslim SalikhovRating 6.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rodriguez · 2022-07
L · Sub · R1
Khamzat ChimaevRating 3.4
Submission
UFC 267: Blachowicz vs. Teixeira · 2021-10
W · KO · R1
Santiago PonzinibbioRating 5.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Kattar · 2021-01

Rodriguez · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
Kevin HollandRating 5.1
Decision
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
W · KO · R3
Santiago PonzinibbioRating 6
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo · 2025-05
W · Dec · R3
Alex MoronoRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira · 2024-10
L · Dec · R3
Kelvin GastelumRating 5.8
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Aliskerov · 2024-06
L · KO · R1
Ian Machado GarryRating 3
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Almeida · 2023-05

News & Media

Li Jingliang · Daniel Rodriguez
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