The Ultimate Fighter: Team Hughes vs. Team Serra Finale
Las Vegas, USA
8 Dec 2007
Welterweight
VS
88%
Arroyo
12%
Kolosci
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 4:42
MA
Matt Arroyo
"No Regard"
3 – 3
5'10"72" reachOrthodox43 yrs2-fight slideSubmission Hunter
CFR 18
JK
John Kolosci
15 – 9
Well-Rounded51 yrsOrthodox5'11"
CFR 3

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Arroyo

Arroyo is a strong favourite at 88% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 16 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Arroyo has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 54 points.

Arroyo has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Arroyo
Kolosci
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
+5'11"
72"
Reach
43+
Age
51
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Arroyo
Kolosci
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
18.3
2.5
45.7
Performance Avg
0.0
54
Quality of Victory
0
43
Momentum Score
0
Arroyo
Kolosci
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.5
0.4
56%
Strike Accuracy
20%
0.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
1
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
0Distance0
0Clinch0
4Ground1
Arroyo
Kolosci
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
8.0
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
5.6
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
10.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Arroyo
Kolosci
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
76
88
Moderate
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
3/6 fights
Chin rating based on
1/24 fights
Arroyo
Kolosci
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
43
0
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
W · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Arroyo
Kolosci
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Arroyo
Kolosci
Striking0.7 / 0.0Volume0.7 / 0.0Grappling8.0 / 0.0Wrestling5.6 / 0.0Submission10.0 / 0.0Pressure8.0 / 0.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
8.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
5.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
10.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
8.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
0.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
Arroyo
Strike Zones
Kolosci
Arroyo
Attacking
4HEAD0BODY0LEGS4 landed
Absorbing
1HEAD0BODY0LEGS1 absorbed
Kolosci
Attacking
1HEAD0BODY0LEGS1 landed
Absorbing
4HEAD0BODY0LEGS4 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Arroyo targets the head (100% of attacks) — Kolosci absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Kolosci targets the head (100% of attacks) — Arroyo absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Arroyo
RND
Kolosci
0/0R00/0

Arroyo · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.5
0105.0W3.1L5.5L2007-122008-062009-01
WinLossTrend

Arroyo · Last 3

L · Dec · R3
Dan CramerRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 94: St-Pierre vs Penn 2 · 2009-01
L · KO · R2
Matt BrownRating 3.1
KO/TKO
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Rampage vs Team Forrest Finale · 2008-06
W · Sub · R1
John KolosciRating 5
Submission
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Hughes vs. Team Serra Finale · 2007-12

Kolosci · Last 1

L · Sub · R1
Matt ArroyoRating 1.5
Submission
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Hughes vs. Team Serra Finale · 2007-12

News & Media

Matt Arroyo · John Kolosci
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