UFC 226: Miocic vs. Cormier
Las Vegas, USA
7 Jul 2018
Lightweight
VS
73%
Chiesa
27%
Pettis
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 0:52
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Chiesa
Chiesa is a strong favourite at 73% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 32 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Pettis has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Chiesa's chin rating of 36 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Pettis has a chin rating of 12 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Chiesa
Pettis
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"+
Height
5'10"
75"+
Reach
72"
38+
Age
39
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Chiesa
Pettis
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
50.7
18.8
53.3
Performance Avg
52.6
43
Quality of Victory
51
50
Momentum Score
72
Chiesa
Pettis
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.7
1.2
41%
Strike Accuracy
52%
1.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.8
0 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
0
Head
1
1
Body
1
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
1Distance2
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Chiesa
Pettis
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.3
5.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.8
4.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Chiesa
Pettis
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
36
12
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
3
5
Sub Losses
1
—
KO round context
Avg R2.7 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
5 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
22/27 fights
Chin rating based on
20/34 fights
Chiesa
Pettis
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
50
72
4-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R1
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
Chiesa
Pettis
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
60%
64%
0
KO / TKO Wins
3
9
Submission Wins
4
6
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Chiesa
Pettis
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.8
5.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.8
4.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.6
6.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.6
6.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.1
4.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.0
ChiesaPettis
Strike Zones
Chiesa
Attacking
1 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedPettis
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
1 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Chiesa targets the body (100% of attacks) — Pettis absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Pettis targets the head (50% of attacks) — Chiesa absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Chiesa
RND
Pettis
0/0R00/0
Chiesa · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.6WinLossTrend
Pettis · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Chiesa · Last 5
W · Sub · R1
Niko PriceRating 5.7Submission
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer · 2026-03
W · Dec · R3
Court McGeeRating 4.7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley · 2025-06
W · Sub · R3
Max GriffinRating 6.1Submission
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
W · Sub · R1
Tony FergusonRating 5.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · 2024-08
L · Sub · R1
Kevin HollandRating 2.1Submission
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07
Pettis · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Alex MoronoRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Neal · 2020-12
W · Dec · R3
Donald CerroneRating 4.5Decision
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje · 2020-05
L · Sub · R2
Diego FerreiraRating 3.8Submission
UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy · 2020-01
L · Dec · R3
Nate DiazRating 5.5Decision
UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2 · 2019-08
W · KO · R2
Stephen ThompsonRating 5.7KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Pettis · 2019-03