METRICS GUIDE

Every stat on this page, explained

All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

UFC 226: Miocic vs. Cormier
Las Vegas, USA
7 Jul 2018
Lightweight
VS
73%
Chiesa
27%
Pettis
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 0:52
Michael
Michael Chiesa
"Maverick"
20 – 7
6'1"75" reachSouthpaw38 yrs4-fight win streakWell-Rounded
CFR 51
AP
Anthony Pettis
"Showtime"
24 – 10
Well-Rounded2-fight win streak39 yrsOrthodox72" reach5'10"
CFR 19
★ Official Result
Anthony PettiswinsSubmissionR2 · 0:52
def. Michael Chiesa · UFC 226: Miocic vs. Cormier

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Chiesa
→
Actual result
Pettis wins
Submission · R2
Pre-fight analysis

Chiesa is a strong favourite at 73% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 32 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Risk flags

Chiesa's chin rating of 36 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Pettis has a chin rating of 12 — a potential KO vulnerability.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout
ChiesaPettis
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Chiesa
Pettis
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"+
Height
5'10"
75"+
Reach
72"
38+
Age
39
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Chiesa
Pettis
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
50.7
18.8
53.3
Performance Avg
52.6
43
Quality of Victory
51
50
Momentum Score
72
Chiesa
Pettis
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.4
/ 10
3.8
/ 10
6.3
Style: Pressure
6.1
4.6
Style: Volume
4.0
0 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
3 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
0
Head
1
1
Body
1
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
1Distance2
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Chiesa
Pettis
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
5.8
/ 10
3.8
/ 10
4.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.6
6.0
Submission Style (/10)
3.6
9
Submission wins
4
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Chiesa
Pettis
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
36
12
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
3
5
Sub Losses
1
—
KO round context
Avg R2.7 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
5 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
22/27 fights
Chin rating based on
20/34 fights
Chiesa
Pettis
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
50
72
4-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R1
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
Chiesa
Pettis
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
60%
64%
0
KO / TKO Wins
3
9
Submission Wins
4
6
Decision Wins
4

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Chiesa
Pettis
Striking1.4 / 3.8Volume4.6 / 4.0Grappling5.8 / 3.8Wrestling4.0 / 2.6Submission6.0 / 3.6Pressure6.3 / 6.1
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.8
5.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.8
4.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.6
6.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.6
6.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.1
4.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.0
Chiesa
Strike Zones
Pettis
Chiesa
Attacking
0HEAD1BODY0LEGS1 landed
Absorbing
1HEAD1BODY0LEGS2 absorbed
Pettis
Attacking
1HEAD1BODY0LEGS2 landed
Absorbing
0HEAD1BODY0LEGS1 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Chiesa targets the body (100% of attacks) — Pettis absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Pettis targets the head (50% of attacks) — Chiesa absorbs 50% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Chiesa
RND
Pettis
0/0R00/0

Chiesa · Last 5

W · Sub · R1
Niko Price
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer · 2026-03
W · Dec · R3
Court McGee
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley · 2025-06
W · Sub · R3
Max Griffin
Submission
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
W · Sub · R1
Tony Ferguson
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · 2024-08
L · Sub · R1
Kevin Holland
Submission
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07

Pettis · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
Alex Morono
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Neal · 2020-12
W · Dec · R3
Donald Cerrone
Decision
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje · 2020-05
L · Sub · R2
Diego Ferreira
Submission
UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy · 2020-01
L · Dec · R3
Nate Diaz
Decision
UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2 · 2019-08
W · KO · R2
Stephen Thompson
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Pettis · 2019-03

News & Media

Michael Chiesa · Anthony Pettis
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