UFC 165: Jones vs Gustafsson
Toronto, Canada
21 Sept 2013
Lightweight
VS
76%
Makdessi
24%
Forte
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 2:01
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Makdessi
Makdessi is a strong favourite at 76% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 21 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Makdessi has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Makdessi's chin rating of 32 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Forte has a chin rating of 64 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Makdessi
Forte
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"+
Height
5'7"
68"
Reach
+71"
41
Age
+39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Makdessi
Forte
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
30.9
9.8
42.2
Performance Avg
25.0
34
Quality of Victory
25
51
Momentum Score
33
Makdessi
Forte
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.5
0.7
51%
Strike Accuracy
32%
3.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.5
3 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
11
Head
3
5
Body
2
4
Leg
2
RangeRange
11Distance7
0Clinch0
9Ground0
Makdessi
Forte
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.8
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
1.2
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Makdessi
Forte
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
32
64
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
7 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
20/27 fights
Chin rating based on
4/12 fights
Makdessi
Forte
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
51
33
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
Makdessi
Forte
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
27%
0%
3
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
8
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Makdessi
Forte
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.5
1.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
1.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
3.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.8
6.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.5
MakdessiForte
Strike Zones
Makdessi
Attacking
20 landedAbsorbing
7 absorbedForte
Attacking
7 landedAbsorbing
20 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Makdessi targets the head (55% of attacks) — Forte absorbs 55% of strikes there
🎯Forte targets the head (43% of attacks) — Makdessi absorbs 43% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Makdessi
RND
Forte
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Makdessi · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Forte · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.9WinLossTrend
Makdessi · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Jamie MullarkeyRating 5.7Decision
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L · Dec · R3
Francisco TrinaldoRating 5.5Decision
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UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Pettis · 2019-03
Forte · Last 4
L · Dec · R3
Francisco TrevinoRating 5.5Decision
UFC 171: Hendricks vs Lawler · 2014-03
L · KO · R1
John MakdessiRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC 165: Jones vs Gustafsson · 2013-09
W · Dec · R3
Terry EtimRating 4.5Decision
UFC on FUEL TV: Barao vs McDonald · 2013-02
L · Sub · R3
Sergio MoraesRating 4Submission
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