UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal
Las Vegas, USA
25 Apr 2026
Bantamweight
VS
60%
Filho
40%
Durden
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Jafel
Jafel Filho
"Pastor"
17 – 5
5'7"68" reachOrthodox33 yrsSubmission Hunter
CFR 57
Cody
Cody Durden
"Custom Made"
18 – 10
Well-Rounded35 yrsSouthpaw67" reach5'7"
CFR 38

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Filho

Filho holds a meaningful edge at 60% per the CFR ratings — but Durden has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 19 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Filho has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 21 points.

Filho has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Durden has a chin rating of 4 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Filho
Durden
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
5'7"
68"+
Reach
67"
33+
Age
35
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Filho
Durden
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
57.0
37.8
52.4
Performance Avg
38.8
54
Quality of Victory
34
46
Momentum Score
54
Filho
Durden
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
1.0
46%
Strike Accuracy
45%
1.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.4
0 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
7
Head
7
4
Body
1
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
6Distance7
6Clinch0
0Ground1
Filho
Durden
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.6
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
8.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.9
5.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Filho
Durden
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
84
4
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
4
—
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
4 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
6/22 fights
Chin rating based on
17/28 fights
Filho
Durden
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
46
54
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R1
Last 5
Upcoming
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
L · KO · R2
Filho
Durden
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
29%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
3
Submission Wins
1
0
Decision Wins
5

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Filho
Durden
Striking1.0 / 2.4Volume1.0 / 6.7Grappling8.0 / 2.9Wrestling5.6 / 2.0Submission10.0 / 1.4Pressure8.5 / 3.4
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.4
8.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.9
5.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.0
10.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.4
8.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.4
1.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.7
Filho
Strike Zones
Durden
Filho
Attacking
7HEAD4BODY1LEGS12 landed
Absorbing
7HEAD1BODY0LEGS8 absorbed
Durden
Attacking
7HEAD1BODY0LEGS8 landed
Absorbing
7HEAD4BODY1LEGS12 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Filho targets the head (58% of attacks) — Durden absorbs 58% of strikes there
🎯Durden targets the head (88% of attacks) — Filho absorbs 88% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Filho
RND
Durden
0/0R00/0

Filho · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.8
0105.4L5.0W5.8W7.0L5.9W5.6L2023-032023-072024-032025-052025-102026-04
WinLossTrend

Durden · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0102.0L5.3W2.9L5.0W4.5W5.4W5.2W3.8L3.6L5.4W7.1L3.7L4.3L6.6L5.6W2020-122022-102024-072025-112026-04
WinLossTrend

Filho · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Cody DurdenRating 5.6
Decision
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W · Sub · R1
Clayton CarpenterRating 5.9
Submission
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L · Dec · R3
Allan NascimentoRating 7
Decision
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W · Sub · R1
Ode OsbourneRating 5.8
Submission
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W · Sub · R1
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Submission
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Durden · Last 5

Upcoming
Ode Osbourne
UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · 2026-07
W · Dec · R3
Jafel FilhoRating 5.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal · 2026-04
L · Dec · R3
Nyamjargal TumendemberelRating 6.6
Decision
UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 · 2026-03
L · Sub · R2
Allan NascimentoRating 4.3
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Garcia vs. Onama · 2025-11
L · KO · R2
Jose OchoaRating 3.7
KO/TKO
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News & Media

Jafel Filho · Cody Durden
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