UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Rakic
Las Vegas, USA
29 Aug 2020
Featherweight
VS
94%
Caceres
6%
Springer
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 3:38
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Caceres
Caceres is a strong favourite at 94% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 37 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Caceres has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 34 points.
Striking split: Springer throws more volume but Caceres connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Caceres's chin rating of 4 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Caceres
Springer
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"+
Height
5'8"
73"+
Reach
71"
37+
Age
39
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Caceres
Springer
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
39.7
2.5
42.2
Performance Avg
0.0
34
Quality of Victory
0
76
Momentum Score
0
Caceres
Springer
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.7
5.6
50%
Strike Accuracy
44%
1.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
11
Head
3
4
Body
2
3
Leg
9
RangeRange
18Distance13
0Clinch1
0Ground0
Caceres
Springer
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
3.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
2.5
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Caceres
Springer
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
4
88
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
5
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
18 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
30/36 fights
Chin rating based on
1/16 fights
Caceres
Springer
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
76
0
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Caceres
Springer
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
31%
0%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
4
Submission Wins
0
11
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Caceres
Springer
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
3.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
2.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
2.5
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
3.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
6.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
CaceresSpringer
Strike Zones
Caceres
Attacking
18 landedAbsorbing
14 absorbedSpringer
Attacking
14 landedAbsorbing
18 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Caceres targets the head (61% of attacks) — Springer absorbs 61% of strikes there
🎯Springer targets the legs (64% of attacks) — Caceres absorbs 64% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Caceres
RND
Springer
0/0R00/0
Caceres · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Caceres · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Sean WoodsonRating 6.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nascimento · 2024-05
L · Dec · R3
Giga ChikadzeRating 6.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. The Korean Zombie · 2023-08
W · Dec · R3
Daniel PinedaRating 5.4Decision
UFC Fight Night: Kara-France vs. Albazi · 2023-06
W · KO · R1
Julian ErosaRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Strickland · 2022-12
L · Dec · R3
Sodiq YusuffRating 6.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ankalaev · 2022-03
Springer · Last 1
L · Sub · R1
Alex CaceresRating 1.7Submission
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Rakic · 2020-08