UFC Fight Night: Diaz vs Neer
Omaha, USA
17 Sept 2008
Lightweight
VS
71%
Guida
29%
Danzig
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Guida
Guida is a strong favourite at 71% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 26 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Danzig has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 16 points.
Danzig has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Guida's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Danzig has a chin rating of 44 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Guida
Danzig
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
+5'8"
70"
Reach
70"
44+
Age
46
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Guida
Danzig
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
44.2
17.9
40.7
Performance Avg
46.0
35
Quality of Victory
51
78
Momentum Score
65
Guida
Danzig
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
1.3
36%
Strike Accuracy
53%
2.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.8
2 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
4
4
Body
0
9
Leg
1
RangeRange
1Distance2
13Clinch3
4Ground0
Guida
Danzig
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
3.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
4.2
2.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.9
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Guida
Danzig
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
44
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
8
Sub Losses
2
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
14 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
37/60 fights
Chin rating based on
13/33 fights
Guida
Danzig
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
78
65
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Guida
Danzig
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
39%
60%
2
KO / TKO Wins
1
5
Submission Wins
2
11
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Guida
Danzig
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.8
3.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.2
2.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.9
2.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
4.0
4.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.3
5.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.0
GuidaDanzig
Strike Zones
Guida
Attacking
18 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedDanzig
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
18 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Guida targets the legs (50% of attacks) — Danzig absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Danzig targets the head (80% of attacks) — Guida absorbs 80% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Guida
RND
Danzig
0/0R00/0
Guida · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Danzig · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.6WinLossTrend
Guida · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Chase HooperRating 2.3Submission
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Danzig · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Joe LauzonRating 5.5Decision
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