UFC 240: Holloway vs. Edgar
Edmonton, Canada
27 Jul 2019
Welterweight
VS
89%
Koch
11%
Stewart
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
EK
Erik Koch
"Phoenix"
16 – 6
5'10"71" reachSouthpaw37 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 19
KS
Kyle Stewart
"Gunz Up"
11 – 3
Well-Rounded2-fight slide37 yrsOrthodox76" reach6'0"
CFR 2

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Koch

Koch is a strong favourite at 89% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 17 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Koch has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 44 points.

Koch has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Koch's chin rating of 50 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Koch
Stewart
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
+6'0"
71"
Reach
+76"
37
Age
37
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Koch
Stewart
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
19.2
2.4
46.3
Performance Avg
0.0
44
Quality of Victory
0
84
Momentum Score
0
Koch
Stewart
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.9
0.3
42%
Strike Accuracy
20%
5.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
2 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
13
Head
4
1
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
3Distance3
1Clinch1
10Ground0
Koch
Stewart
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.6
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
1.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Koch
Stewart
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
50
86
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
—
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
10/22 fights
Chin rating based on
2/14 fights
Koch
Stewart
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
84
0
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
L · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
Koch
Stewart
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
60%
0%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Koch
Stewart
Striking5.0 / 0.0Volume4.2 / 0.0Grappling2.6 / 0.0Wrestling1.8 / 0.0Submission2.0 / 0.0Pressure5.7 / 0.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
2.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
2.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
4.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
Koch
Strike Zones
Stewart
Koch
Attacking
13HEAD1BODY0LEGS14 landed
Absorbing
4HEAD0BODY0LEGS4 absorbed
Stewart
Attacking
4HEAD0BODY0LEGS4 landed
Absorbing
13HEAD1BODY0LEGS14 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Koch targets the head (93% of attacks) — Stewart absorbs 93% of strikes there
🎯Stewart targets the head (100% of attacks) — Koch absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Koch
RND
Stewart
0/0R00/0

Koch · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.8
0105.0W4.5W2.8L6.8L5.0W1.5L5.2W6.0L6.2L4.5W2011-032013-082016-052019-07
WinLossTrend

Stewart · QOF Timeline

Avg: 3.5
0101.5L5.5L2019-012019-07
WinLossTrend

Koch · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
Kyle StewartRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 240: Holloway vs. Edgar · 2019-07
L · Dec · R3
King GreenRating 6.2
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Brunson 2 · 2018-01
L · Dec · R3
Clay GuidaRating 6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Lee · 2017-06
W · Sub · R2
Shane CampbellRating 5.2
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs Garbrandt · 2016-05
L · KO · R1
Daron CruickshankRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Brown vs Silva · 2014-05

Stewart · Last 2

L · Dec · R3
Erik KochRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 240: Holloway vs. Edgar · 2019-07
L · Sub · R1
Chance RencountreRating 1.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Dillashaw · 2019-01

News & Media

Erik Koch · Kyle Stewart
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