METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 240: Holloway vs. Edgar
Edmonton, Canada
27 Jul 2019
Welterweight
VS
89%
Koch
11%
Stewart
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Erik KochwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Kyle Stewart · UFC 240: Holloway vs. Edgar
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Koch
→
Actual result
Koch wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Koch is a strong favourite at 89% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 17 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Koch has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 44 points.
Koch has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Koch's chin rating of 50 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
KochStewart
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Koch
Stewart
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
+6'0"
71"
Reach
+76"
37
Age
37
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Koch
Stewart
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
19.2
2.4
46.3
Performance Avg
0.0
44
Quality of Victory
0
84
Momentum Score
0
Koch
Stewart
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.9
0.3
42%
Strike Accuracy
20%
5.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
2 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
13
Head
4
1
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
3Distance3
1Clinch1
10Ground0
Koch
Stewart
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.6
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
1.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Koch
Stewart
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
50
86
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
—
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
10/22 fights
Chin rating based on
2/14 fights
Koch
Stewart
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
84
0
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
L · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
Koch
Stewart
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
60%
0%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Koch
Stewart
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
2.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
2.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
4.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
KochStewart
Strike Zones
Koch
Attacking
14 landedAbsorbing
4 absorbedStewart
Attacking
4 landedAbsorbing
14 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Koch targets the head (93% of attacks) — Stewart absorbs 93% of strikes there
🎯Stewart targets the head (100% of attacks) — Koch absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Koch
RND
Stewart
0/0R00/0
Koch · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
Stewart · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.5WinLossTrend
Koch · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Kyle StewartRating 4.5Decision
UFC 240: Holloway vs. Edgar · 2019-07
L · Dec · R3
King GreenRating 6.2Decision
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Brunson 2 · 2018-01
L · Dec · R3
Clay GuidaRating 6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Lee · 2017-06
W · Sub · R2
Shane CampbellRating 5.2Submission
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs Garbrandt · 2016-05
L · KO · R1
Daron CruickshankRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Brown vs Silva · 2014-05
Stewart · Last 2
L · Dec · R3
Erik KochRating 5.5Decision
UFC 240: Holloway vs. Edgar · 2019-07
L · Sub · R1
Chance RencountreRating 1.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Dillashaw · 2019-01