UFC 194: Aldo vs McGregor
Las Vegas, USA
12 Dec 2015
Welterweight
VS
94%
McGee
6%
Junior
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: McGee
McGee is a strong favourite at 94% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 36 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
McGee has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 36 points.
McGee has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
McGee's chin rating of 14 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
McGee
Junior
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
+6'0"
75"
Reach
75"
41
Age
+37
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
McGee
Junior
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
38.7
2.4
40.1
Performance Avg
0.0
36
Quality of Victory
0
50
Momentum Score
0
McGee
Junior
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.6
0.3
39%
Strike Accuracy
32%
0.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
23
Head
3
2
Body
2
7
Leg
0
RangeRange
14Distance5
0Clinch0
18Ground0
McGee
Junior
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
3.9
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
2.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
McGee
Junior
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
14
84
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Never stopped
3
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
24/37 fights
Chin rating based on
3/21 fights
McGee
Junior
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
50
0
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
McGee
Junior
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
27%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
3
Submission Wins
0
8
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
McGee
Junior
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
3.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
2.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
2.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
3.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
6.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
McGeeJunior
Strike Zones
McGee
Attacking
32 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedJunior
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
32 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯McGee targets the head (72% of attacks) — Junior absorbs 72% of strikes there
🎯Junior targets the head (60% of attacks) — McGee absorbs 60% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
McGee
RND
Junior
0/0R00/0
McGee · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Junior · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.2WinLossTrend
McGee · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Michael ChiesaRating 6.3Decision
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L · Dec · R3
Court McGeeRating 5.7Decision
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L · Dec · R3
Tim MeansRating 5.6Decision
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