UFC 193: Rousey vs Holm
Melbourne, Australia
14 Nov 2015
Middleweight
VS
88%
Kelly
12%
Montgomery
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Kelly
Kelly is a strong favourite at 88% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 14 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Kelly has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 34 points.
Striking split: Montgomery throws more volume but Kelly connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Kelly's chin rating of 32 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Kelly
Montgomery
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
+6'4"
70"
Reach
48
Age
+35
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
Kelly
Montgomery
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
16.0
2.1
44.4
Performance Avg
0.0
34
Quality of Victory
0
65
Momentum Score
0
Kelly
Montgomery
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.8
2.1
41%
Strike Accuracy
39%
2.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
23
Head
19
2
Body
8
1
Leg
1
RangeRange
13Distance22
5Clinch6
8Ground0
Kelly
Montgomery
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.9
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
2.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
1.7
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Kelly
Montgomery
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
32
76
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
3
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
10/17 fights
Chin rating based on
2/14 fights
Kelly
Montgomery
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
65
0
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Kelly
Montgomery
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
0%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
0
4
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Kelly
Montgomery
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
2.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
2.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
1.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
6.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
KellyMontgomery
Strike Zones
Kelly
Attacking
26 landedAbsorbing
28 absorbedMontgomery
Attacking
28 landedAbsorbing
26 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Kelly targets the head (88% of attacks) — Montgomery absorbs 88% of strikes there
🎯Montgomery targets the head (68% of attacks) — Kelly absorbs 68% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Kelly
RND
Montgomery
0/0R00/0
Kelly · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.9WinLossTrend
Montgomery · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.5WinLossTrend
Kelly · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Tom BreeseRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Till · 2018-05
L · Dec · R3
Elias TheodorouRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Tybura · 2017-11
L · KO · R1
Derek BrunsonRating 1.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Hunt · 2017-06
W · Dec · R3
Rashad EvansRating 4.5Decision
UFC 209: Woodley vs. Thompson 2 · 2017-03
W · Dec · R3
Chris CamozziRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Brunson · 2016-11
Montgomery · Last 2
L · Dec · R3
Daniel KellyRating 5.5Decision
UFC 193: Rousey vs Holm · 2015-11
L · KO · R1
Tony SimsRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Romero · 2015-06