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All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Edwards
Kallang, Singapore
23 Jun 2018
Flyweight
VS
73%
Schnell
27%
Inoue
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Matt
Matt Schnell
"Danger"
1710
5'8"70" reachOrthodox36 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 38
NI
Naoki Inoue
111
Well-Rounded29 yrsOrthodox71" reach5'9"
CFR 14
★ Official Result
Matt SchnellwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Naoki Inoue · UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Edwards

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Schnell
Actual result
Schnell wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis

Schnell is a strong favourite at 73% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 23 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Schnell has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 12 points.

Risk flags

Schnell's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout
SchnellInoue
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
Strike Accuracy
Schnell
Inoue
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"
Height
+5'9"
70"
Reach
+71"
36
Age
+29
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Schnell
Inoue
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
37.5
14.2
39.6
Performance Avg
35.0
37
Quality of Victory
25
45
Momentum Score
55
Schnell
Inoue
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.9
/ 10
1.0
/ 10
4.3
Style: Pressure
1.5
5.5
Style: Volume
9.0
0 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
0 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
15
Head
13
2
Body
2
6
Leg
7
RangeRange
21Distance18
2Clinch4
0Ground0
Schnell
Inoue
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
4.8
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
3.4
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
4.3
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
3
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Schnell
Inoue
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
98
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Never stopped
6
KO/TKO Losses
0
3
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.3 stoppage
KO round context
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Strikes absorbed / min
17/27 fights
Chin rating based on
2/12 fights
Schnell
Inoue
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
45
55
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
L · KO · R2
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Schnell
Inoue
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
43%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
3
Submission Wins
0
4
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Schnell
Inoue
Striking0.9 / 1.0Volume5.5 / 9.0Grappling4.8 / 2.4Wrestling3.4 / 1.7Submission4.3 / 0.0Pressure4.3 / 1.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.0
4.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
3.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
4.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.5
5.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
9.0
Schnell
Strike Zones
Inoue
Schnell
Attacking
15HEAD2BODY6LEGS23 landed
Absorbing
13HEAD2BODY7LEGS22 absorbed
Inoue
Attacking
13HEAD2BODY7LEGS22 landed
Absorbing
15HEAD2BODY6LEGS23 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Schnell targets the head (65% of attacks) — Inoue absorbs 65% of strikes there
🎯Inoue targets the head (59% of attacks) — Schnell absorbs 59% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Schnell
RND
Inoue
0/0R00/0

Schnell · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Alessandro Costa
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim · 2026-06
L · Sub · R1
Joseph Morales
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brown · 2025-11
W · Dec · R3
Jimmy Flick
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Machado Garry vs. Prates · 2025-04
L · Sub · R2
Cody Durden
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady · 2024-09
L · KO · R2
Steve Erceg
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev · 2024-03

Inoue · Last 2

L · Dec · R3
Matt Schnell
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Edwards · 2018-06
W · Dec · R3
Carls John De Tomas
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Correia · 2017-06

News & Media

Matt Schnell · Naoki Inoue
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