UFC 183: Silva vs Diaz
Las Vegas, USA
31 Jan 2015
Welterweight
VS
32%
Woodley
68%
Gastelum
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Gastelum
Gastelum holds a meaningful edge at 68% per the CFR ratings — but Woodley has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 22 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Woodley has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 17 points.
Striking split: Gastelum throws more volume but Woodley connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Woodley's chin rating of 58 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Gastelum has a chin rating of 38 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Woodley
Gastelum
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
5'9"
74"+
Reach
71"
44
Age
+34
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Woodley
Gastelum
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
19.4
41.4
58.9
Performance Avg
47.4
58
Quality of Victory
42
40
Momentum Score
28
Woodley
Gastelum
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.9
1.3
49%
Strike Accuracy
43%
6.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.3
5 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
11
5
Body
5
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
6Distance14
3Clinch2
0Ground0
Woodley
Gastelum
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.3
1.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.7
1.2
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.9
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Woodley
Gastelum
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
58
38
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
4
Avg R5.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
16/26 fights
Chin rating based on
26/32 fights
Woodley
Gastelum
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
40
28
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R5
L · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R5
W · Sub · R2
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
Woodley
Gastelum
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
67%
36%
5
KO / TKO Wins
3
1
Submission Wins
2
3
Decision Wins
9
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Woodley
Gastelum
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.3
1.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.7
1.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.9
1.1
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.4
6.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.2
3.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.3
WoodleyGastelum
Strike Zones
Woodley
Attacking
9 landedAbsorbing
16 absorbedGastelum
Attacking
16 landedAbsorbing
9 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Woodley targets the body (56% of attacks) — Gastelum absorbs 56% of strikes there
🎯Gastelum targets the head (69% of attacks) — Woodley absorbs 69% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Woodley
RND
Gastelum
0/0R00/0
Woodley · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Gastelum · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Woodley · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Vicente LuqueRating 3Submission
UFC 260: Miocic vs. Ngannou · 2021-03
L · KO · R5
Colby CovingtonRating 5.3KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley · 2020-09
L · Dec · R5
Gilbert BurnsRating 5.7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Woodley vs. Burns · 2020-05
L · Dec · R5
Kamaru UsmanRating 6.6Decision
UFC 235: Jones vs. Smith · 2019-03
W · Sub · R2
Darren TillRating 5.1Submission
UFC 228: Woodley vs. Till · 2018-09
Gastelum · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Vicente LuqueRating 3Submission
UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg · 2026-04
W · Dec · R3
Dustin StoltzfusRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva · 2025-09
L · Dec · R3
Joe PyferRating 7.5Decision
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · 2025-06
W · Dec · R3
Daniel RodriguezRating 5.4Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Aliskerov · 2024-06
L · Sub · R3
Sean BradyRating 5.1Submission
UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan · 2023-12