UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz
New York City, USA
2 Nov 2019
Lightweight
VS
59%
Lee
41%
Gillespie
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 2:47
KL
Kevin Lee
"The Motown Phenom"
18 – 8
5'9"77" reachOrthodox33 yrs3-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 35
GG
Gregor Gillespie
"The Gift"
14 – 1
Knockout Artist39 yrsOrthodox71" reach5'7"
CFR 25

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Lee

This is a genuine toss-up — Lee at 59% vs Gillespie at 41% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 10 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Gillespie has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Lee's chin rating of 24 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Lee
Gillespie
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"+
Height
5'7"
77"+
Reach
71"
33+
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Lee
Gillespie
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
35.2
24.8
48.3
Performance Avg
65.3
42
Quality of Victory
51
53
Momentum Score
89
Lee
Gillespie
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
2.7
42%
Strike Accuracy
58%
3.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
7.5
2 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
19
Head
8
2
Body
0
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
20Distance9
0Clinch0
1Ground0
Lee
Gillespie
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
3.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.6
2.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Lee
Gillespie
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
24
78
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
4
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
13 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
19/26 fights
Chin rating based on
8/15 fights
Lee
Gillespie
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
53
89
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
W · KO · R1
L · Sub · R4
Last 5
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R2
W · Sub · R2
W · KO · R1
Lee
Gillespie
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
55%
86%
2
KO / TKO Wins
4
4
Submission Wins
2
5
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Lee
Gillespie
Striking3.0 / 7.5Volume4.1 / 2.9Grappling3.8 / 2.6Wrestling2.6 / 1.8Submission3.6 / 2.9Pressure5.6 / 8.6
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
7.5
3.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.6
2.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.8
3.6
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.9
5.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.6
4.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.9
Lee
Strike Zones
Gillespie
Lee
Attacking
19HEAD2BODY0LEGS21 landed
Absorbing
8HEAD0BODY1LEGS9 absorbed
Gillespie
Attacking
8HEAD0BODY1LEGS9 landed
Absorbing
19HEAD2BODY0LEGS21 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Lee targets the head (90% of attacks) — Gillespie absorbs 90% of strikes there
🎯Gillespie targets the head (89% of attacks) — Lee absorbs 89% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Lee
RND
Gillespie
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Lee · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0105.5L4.5W4.5W4.5W5.0W1.6L4.5W6.0W5.2W5.2W5.8W3.3L5.0W5.5L3.6L5.0W4.2L6.4L3.1L2014-022015-122017-062019-112023-07
WinLossTrend

Gillespie · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.8
0104.5W5.0W5.2W5.0W5.5W5.2W1.5L6.3W2016-092017-092018-062019-112021-05
WinLossTrend

Lee · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
Rinat FakhretdinovRating 3.1
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Magomedov · 2023-07
L · Dec · R3
Daniel RodriguezRating 6.4
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Chikadze · 2021-08
L · Sub · R3
Charles OliveiraRating 4.2
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Oliveira · 2020-03
W · KO · R1
Gregor GillespieRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz · 2019-11
L · Sub · R4
Rafael Dos AnjosRating 3.6
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Lee · 2019-05

Gillespie · Last 5

W · KO · R2
Diego FerreiraRating 6.3
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Waterson · 2021-05
L · KO · R1
Kevin LeeRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz · 2019-11
W · KO · R2
Yancy MedeirosRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Dillashaw · 2019-01
W · Sub · R2
Vinc PichelRating 5.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Rivera vs. Moraes · 2018-06
W · KO · R1
Jordan RinaldiRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Brunson 2 · 2018-01

News & Media

Kevin Lee · Gregor Gillespie
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