UFC Live: Sanchez vs Kampmann
Louisville, USA
3 Mar 2011
Bantamweight
VS
53%
Mizugaki
47%
Duran
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
TM
Takeya Mizugaki
21 – 11
5'7"69" reachOrthodox42 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 16
RD
Reuben Duran
11 – 7
Submission Hunter2-fight slide42 yrsOrthodox71" reach5'7"
CFR 15

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Mizugaki

This is a genuine toss-up — Mizugaki at 53% vs Duran at 47% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Duran has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 16 points.

Striking split: Mizugaki throws more volume but Duran connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Mizugaki's chin rating of 18 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Mizugaki
Duran
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
5'7"
69"
Reach
+71"
42
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Mizugaki
Duran
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
16.4
14.7
40.1
Performance Avg
37.0
29
Quality of Victory
45
98
Momentum Score
22
Mizugaki
Duran
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
1.0
38%
Strike Accuracy
52%
2.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.5
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
5
1
Body
7
3
Leg
7
RangeRange
5Distance7
2Clinch11
3Ground1
Mizugaki
Duran
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.1
/ 10
8.0
/ 10
1.5
Wrestling Style (/10)
5.6
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
10.0
0
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Mizugaki
Duran
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
18
74
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Moderate
3
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
14/32 fights
Chin rating based on
4/18 fights
Mizugaki
Duran
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
98
22
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
L · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R3
L · Dec · R3
Mizugaki
Duran
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
13%
100%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
1
7
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Mizugaki
Duran
Striking2.4 / 0.5Volume8.1 / 0.5Grappling2.1 / 8.0Wrestling1.5 / 5.6Submission0.0 / 10.0Pressure2.6 / 7.8
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.5
2.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
8.0
1.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
5.6
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
10.0
2.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.8
8.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.5
Mizugaki
Strike Zones
Duran
Mizugaki
Attacking
6HEAD1BODY3LEGS10 landed
Absorbing
5HEAD7BODY7LEGS19 absorbed
Duran
Attacking
5HEAD7BODY7LEGS19 landed
Absorbing
6HEAD1BODY3LEGS10 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Mizugaki targets the head (60% of attacks) — Duran absorbs 60% of strikes there
🎯Duran targets the body (37% of attacks) — Mizugaki absorbs 37% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Mizugaki
RND
Duran
0/0R00/0

Mizugaki · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.2
0104.5W5.5L5.2W5.5L4.5W4.5W4.5W4.5W4.5W1.5L5.0L4.5W2.6L1.5L2011-032012-112014-052016-082016-12
WinLossTrend

Duran · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.5
0105.5L5.5W1.5L5.5L2011-032011-062012-122013-03
WinLossTrend

Mizugaki · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Eddie WinelandRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson · 2016-12
L · KO · R1
Cody GarbrandtRating 2.6
KO/TKO
UFC 202: Diaz vs. McGregor 2 · 2016-08
W · Dec · R3
George RoopRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Barnett vs Nelson · 2015-09
L · Sub · R3
Aljamain SterlingRating 5
Submission
UFC on FOX: Machida vs Rockhold · 2015-04
L · KO · R1
Dominick CruzRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso · 2014-09

Duran · Last 4

L · Dec · R3
George RoopRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 158: St-Pierre vs Diaz · 2013-03
L · KO · R1
Hugo VianaRating 1.5
KO/TKO
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Carwin vs. Team Nelson Finale · 2012-12
W · Sub · R3
Francisco RiveraRating 5.5
Submission
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Lesnar vs Team dos Santos Finale · 2011-06
L · Dec · R3
Takeya MizugakiRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Live: Sanchez vs Kampmann · 2011-03

News & Media

Takeya Mizugaki · Reuben Duran
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