METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 127: Penn vs Fitch
Sydney, Australia
26 Feb 2011
Welterweight
VS
49%
Ebersole
51%
Lytle
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Brian EbersolewinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Chris Lytle · UFC 127: Penn vs Fitch
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Lytle
→
Actual result
Ebersole wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Ebersole at 49% vs Lytle at 51% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Lytle has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 12 points.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
EbersoleLytle
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Ebersole
Lytle
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"+
Height
5'11"
73"+
Reach
68"
45+
Age
52
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Ebersole
Lytle
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
17.4
18.3
44.2
Performance Avg
46.2
32
Quality of Victory
44
75
Momentum Score
56
Ebersole
Lytle
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.3
/ 10
2.0
/ 10
3.3
Style: Pressure
6.4
7.7
Style: Volume
3.4
1 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
1 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
8
Head
3
2
Body
3
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
3Distance4
4Clinch2
4Ground0
Ebersole
Lytle
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.9
/ 10
5.5
/ 10
1.3
Wrestling Style (/10)
3.9
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
6.0
0
Submission wins
6
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Ebersole
Lytle
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
74
80
Moderate
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
8/69 fights
Chin rating based on
20/49 fights
Ebersole
Lytle
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
75
56
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · Sub · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R1
Ebersole
Lytle
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
20%
70%
1
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
6
4
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Ebersole
Lytle
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.0
1.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
5.5
1.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.9
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
6.0
3.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.4
7.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.4
EbersoleLytle
Strike Zones
Ebersole
Attacking
11 landedAbsorbing
6 absorbedLytle
Attacking
6 landedAbsorbing
11 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Ebersole targets the head (73% of attacks) — Lytle absorbs 73% of strikes there
🎯Lytle targets the head (50% of attacks) — Ebersole absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Ebersole
RND
Lytle
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Ebersole · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Omari AkhmedovKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Boetsch vs Henderson · 2015-06
W · Dec · R3
John HowardDecision
UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso · 2014-09
L · Dec · R3
Rick StoryDecision
UFC 167: St-Pierre vs Hendricks · 2013-11
L · Dec · R3
James HeadDecision
UFC 149: Faber vs Barao · 2012-07
W · Dec · R3
TJ WaldburgerDecision
UFC on FX: Maynard vs Guida · 2012-06
Lytle · Last 5
W · Sub · R3
Dan HardySubmission
UFC Live: Hardy vs Lytle · 2011-08
L · Dec · R3
Brian EbersoleDecision
UFC 127: Penn vs Fitch · 2011-02
W · Dec · R3
Matt SerraDecision
UFC 119: Mir vs Cro Cop · 2010-09
W · Sub · R2
Matt BrownSubmission
UFC 116: Lesnar vs Carwin · 2010-07
W · Sub · R1
Brian FosterSubmission
UFC 110: Nogueira vs Velasquez · 2010-02