UFC 127: Penn vs Fitch
Sydney, Australia
26 Feb 2011
Welterweight
VS
49%
Ebersole
51%
Lytle
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
BE
Brian Ebersole
"Bad Boy"
51 – 18
6'0"73" reachSouthpaw45 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 17
CL
Chris Lytle
"Lights Out"
31 – 18
Well-Rounded51 yrsOrthodox68" reach5'11"
CFR 18

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Lytle

This is a genuine toss-up — Ebersole at 49% vs Lytle at 51% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Lytle has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 12 points.

Striking split: Lytle throws more volume but Ebersole connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Ebersole
Lytle
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"+
Height
5'11"
73"+
Reach
68"
45+
Age
51
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Ebersole
Lytle
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
17.4
18.3
44.2
Performance Avg
46.2
32
Quality of Victory
44
75
Momentum Score
56
Ebersole
Lytle
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
1.3
50%
Strike Accuracy
42%
3.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.0
1 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
8
Head
3
2
Body
3
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
3Distance4
4Clinch2
4Ground0
Ebersole
Lytle
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
0.4
1.9
Grappling Style Score (/10)
5.5
1.3
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.9
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Ebersole
Lytle
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
74
80
Moderate
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
8/69 fights
Chin rating based on
20/49 fights
Ebersole
Lytle
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
75
56
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · Sub · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R1
Ebersole
Lytle
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
20%
70%
1
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
6
4
Decision Wins
3

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Ebersole
Lytle
Striking3.3 / 2.0Volume7.7 / 3.4Grappling1.9 / 5.5Wrestling1.3 / 3.9Submission0.0 / 6.0Pressure3.3 / 6.4
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.0
1.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
5.5
1.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.9
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
6.0
3.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.4
7.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.4
Ebersole
Strike Zones
Lytle
Ebersole
Attacking
8HEAD2BODY1LEGS11 landed
Absorbing
3HEAD3BODY0LEGS6 absorbed
Lytle
Attacking
3HEAD3BODY0LEGS6 landed
Absorbing
8HEAD2BODY1LEGS11 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Ebersole targets the head (73% of attacks) — Lytle absorbs 73% of strikes there
🎯Lytle targets the head (50% of attacks) — Ebersole absorbs 50% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Ebersole
RND
Lytle
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Ebersole · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.4
0104.5W5.0W4.5W4.5W5.5L5.5L4.5W1.5L2011-022011-122012-072014-092015-06
WinLossTrend

Lytle · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.2
0104.8L5.8L5.2W5.2W5.5L4.8L5.5L5.5L5.0W4.8L5.0W5.5L4.5W5.5L4.5W5.0W5.6W4.5W5.5L5.5W2000-112005-102008-022010-022011-08
WinLossTrend

Ebersole · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Omari AkhmedovRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Boetsch vs Henderson · 2015-06
W · Dec · R3
John HowardRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso · 2014-09
L · Dec · R3
Rick StoryRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 167: St-Pierre vs Hendricks · 2013-11
L · Dec · R3
James HeadRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 149: Faber vs Barao · 2012-07
W · Dec · R3
TJ WaldburgerRating 4.5
Decision
UFC on FX: Maynard vs Guida · 2012-06

Lytle · Last 5

W · Sub · R3
Dan HardyRating 5.5
Submission
UFC Live: Hardy vs Lytle · 2011-08
L · Dec · R3
Brian EbersoleRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 127: Penn vs Fitch · 2011-02
W · Dec · R3
Matt SerraRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 119: Mir vs Cro Cop · 2010-09
W · Sub · R2
Matt BrownRating 5.6
Submission
UFC 116: Lesnar vs Carwin · 2010-07
W · Sub · R1
Brian FosterRating 5
Submission
UFC 110: Nogueira vs Velasquez · 2010-02

News & Media

Brian Ebersole · Chris Lytle
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