UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Rodriguez
Las Vegas, USA
9 Oct 2021
Welterweight
VS
54%
Brown
46%
Gooden
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Brown
This is a genuine toss-up — Brown at 54% vs Gooden at 46% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 7 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Gooden has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 16 points.
Striking split: Brown throws more volume but Gooden connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Brown's chin rating of 4 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Brown
Gooden
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"+
Height
6'0"
78"+
Reach
77"
35
Age
+32
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Brown
Gooden
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
52.9
45.5
48.7
Performance Avg
44.3
39
Quality of Victory
55
92
Momentum Score
33
Brown
Gooden
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.8
1.4
50%
Strike Accuracy
52%
4.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.6
4 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
39
Head
8
10
Body
11
1
Leg
7
RangeRange
45Distance23
4Clinch3
1Ground0
Brown
Gooden
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.9
Grappling Style Score (/10)
4.0
2.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Brown
Gooden
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
4
90
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
3
KO/TKO Losses
0
2
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
22/28 fights
Chin rating based on
7/33 fights
Brown
Gooden
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
92
33
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
Brown
Gooden
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
100%
4
KO / TKO Wins
1
3
Submission Wins
1
7
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Brown
Gooden
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.6
2.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.0
2.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.8
2.1
Submission
Submission attack frequency
5.0
5.4
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.9
5.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.6
BrownGooden
Strike Zones
Brown
Attacking
50 landedAbsorbing
26 absorbedGooden
Attacking
26 landedAbsorbing
50 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Brown targets the head (78% of attacks) — Gooden absorbs 78% of strikes there
🎯Gooden targets the body (42% of attacks) — Brown absorbs 42% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Brown
RND
Gooden
0/0R00/0
Brown · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Gooden · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.8WinLossTrend
Brown · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Kevin HollandRating 6.1Decision
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Bryan BattleRating 7.3Decision
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W · Dec · R3
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UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06
Gooden · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Chidi NjokuaniRating 6.6Decision
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UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan · 2023-12
L · Dec · R3
Carlston HarrisRating 6.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalishvili · 2023-03
L · Dec · R3
Randy BrownRating 6.4Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Rodriguez · 2021-10
W · KO · R1
Niklas StolzeRating 5KO/TKO
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