UFC Fight Night: Muniz vs. Allen
Las Vegas, USA
25 Feb 2023
Heavyweight
VS
49%
Sakai
51%
Mayes
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
AS
Augusto Sakai
16 – 5
6'3"77" reachOrthodox35 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 39
Don'Tale
Don'Tale Mayes
"Lord Kong"
11 – 9
Well-Rounded3-fight slide34 yrsOrthodox81" reach6'6"
CFR 41

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Mayes

This is a genuine toss-up — Sakai at 49% vs Mayes at 51% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Sakai has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Sakai's chin rating of 12 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Mayes has a chin rating of 56 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Sakai
Mayes
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"
Height
+6'6"
77"
Reach
+81"
35
Age
+34
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Sakai
Mayes
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
38.9
41.2
44.4
Performance Avg
37.8
37
Quality of Victory
39
100
Momentum Score
43
Sakai
Mayes
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.5
1.0
50%
Strike Accuracy
46%
5.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.7
2 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
11
Head
9
7
Body
3
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
6Distance9
10Clinch3
2Ground0
Sakai
Mayes
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.4
/ 10
1.2
/ 10
1.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.8
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Sakai
Mayes
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
12
56
4 consec. KOs
Verdict
Never stopped
4
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
3
Avg R2.5 stoppage
KO round context
—
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
9/21 fights
Chin rating based on
12/20 fights
Sakai
Mayes
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
43
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R5
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Sakai
Mayes
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
40%
50%
2
KO / TKO Wins
2
0
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Sakai
Mayes
Striking5.1 / 5.7Volume5.9 / 4.7Grappling1.4 / 1.2Wrestling1.0 / 0.8Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure4.5 / 4.6
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.7
1.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.2
1.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.6
5.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.7
Sakai
Strike Zones
Mayes
Sakai
Attacking
11HEAD7BODY0LEGS18 landed
Absorbing
9HEAD3BODY0LEGS12 absorbed
Mayes
Attacking
9HEAD3BODY0LEGS12 landed
Absorbing
11HEAD7BODY0LEGS18 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Sakai targets the head (61% of attacks) — Mayes absorbs 61% of strikes there
🎯Mayes targets the head (75% of attacks) — Sakai absorbs 75% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Sakai
RND
Mayes
0/0R00/0

Sakai · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.3
0105.5W5.2W5.4W4.5W4.0L2.6L3.2L3.3L4.8W2018-092020-052021-122023-02
WinLossTrend

Mayes · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.1
0105.8L3.1L4.5W5.6W5.7L6.0W5.8L4.5W6.2L3.4L5.5L2019-102021-122023-112025-022025-05
WinLossTrend

Sakai · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
Don'Tale MayesRating 4.8
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Muniz vs. Allen · 2023-02
L · KO · R2
Serghei SpivacRating 3.3
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Hill · 2022-08
L · KO · R2
Tai TuivasaRating 3.2
KO/TKO
UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier · 2021-12
L · KO · R1
Jairzinho RozenstruikRating 2.6
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Sakai · 2021-06
L · KO · R5
Alistair OvereemRating 4
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Sakai · 2020-09

Mayes · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Thomas PetersenRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo · 2025-05
L · Sub · R1
Valter WalkerRating 3.4
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Rodrigues · 2025-02
L · Dec · R3
Shamil GazievRating 6.2
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · 2024-08
W · Dec · R3
Caio MachadoRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Perez · 2024-04
L · Dec · R3
Rodrigo NascimentoRating 5.8
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Lewis · 2023-11

News & Media

Augusto Sakai · Don'Tale Mayes
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