UFC 248: Adesanya vs. Romero
Las Vegas, USA
7 Mar 2020
Middleweight
VS
74%
Meerschaert
26%
Winn
Win Probability
Submission
Round 3 · 2:13
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Meerschaert
Meerschaert is a strong favourite at 74% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 37 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Meerschaert has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 25 points.
Striking split: Winn throws more volume but Meerschaert connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Meerschaert's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Winn has a chin rating of 64 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Meerschaert
Winn
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"+
Height
5'6"
77"+
Reach
70"
38
Age
+36
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Meerschaert
Winn
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
56.7
19.6
48.2
Performance Avg
31.0
50
Quality of Victory
25
91
Momentum Score
55
Meerschaert
Winn
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
1.5
45%
Strike Accuracy
41%
1.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.8
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
8
Head
10
4
Body
3
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
7Distance13
5Clinch1
0Ground0
Meerschaert
Winn
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.3
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
7.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.4
5.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Meerschaert
Winn
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
64
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Moderate
5
KO/TKO Losses
1
3
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.2 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
26/59 fights
Chin rating based on
5/10 fights
Meerschaert
Winn
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
91
55
5-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Meerschaert
Winn
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
0%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
11
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Meerschaert
Winn
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.8
7.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
5.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
9.2
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
8.4
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.2
0.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.8
MeerschaertWinn
Strike Zones
Meerschaert
Attacking
12 landedAbsorbing
14 absorbedWinn
Attacking
14 landedAbsorbing
12 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Meerschaert targets the head (67% of attacks) — Winn absorbs 67% of strikes there
🎯Winn targets the head (71% of attacks) — Meerschaert absorbs 71% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Meerschaert
RND
Winn
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Meerschaert · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Winn · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Meerschaert · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Jacob MalkounRating 6.5Decision
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L · Sub · R1
Kyle DaukausRating 2.1Submission
UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev · 2025-11
L · KO · R1
Michal OleksiejczukRating 2.5KO/TKO
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev · 2025-08
L · Dec · R3
Brad TavaresRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Murphy · 2025-04
L · Sub · R3
Reinier de RidderRating 5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Prates · 2024-11
Winn · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Phil HawesRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Emmett · 2022-06
W · Dec · R3
Antonio ArroyoRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Neal · 2020-12
L · Sub · R3
Gerald MeerschaertRating 5.1Submission
UFC 248: Adesanya vs. Romero · 2020-03
L · Dec · R3
Darren StewartRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Weidman · 2019-10
W · Dec · R3
Eric SpicelyRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. The Korean Zombie · 2019-06