UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan
Las Vegas, USA
4 Apr 2026
Lightweight
VS
45%
Moicano
55%
Duncan
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 3:14
Renato
Renato Moicano
21 – 7
5'11"72" reachOrthodox37 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 50
Chris
Chris Duncan
"The Problem"
15 – 3
Well-Rounded33 yrsOrthodox71" reach5'10"
CFR 60

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Duncan

This is a genuine toss-up — Moicano at 45% vs Duncan at 55% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 10 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Duncan has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Moicano's chin rating of 6 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Moicano
Duncan
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"+
Height
5'10"
72"+
Reach
71"
37
Age
+33
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Moicano
Duncan
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
50.3
60.4
51.7
Performance Avg
53.2
43
Quality of Victory
39
64
Momentum Score
89
Moicano
Duncan
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.9
2.5
50%
Strike Accuracy
50%
2.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.5
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
5
1
Body
2
0
Leg
3
RangeRange
7Distance10
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Moicano
Duncan
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
5.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
5.2
3.5
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Moicano
Duncan
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
6
76
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Never stopped
3
KO/TKO Losses
0
2
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.3 stoppage
KO round context
—
10 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
20/28 fights
Chin rating based on
8/18 fights
Moicano
Duncan
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
64
89
W · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
W · R2
W · KO · R2
Last 5
L · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R1
Moicano
Duncan
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
62%
50%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
7
Submission Wins
3
5
Decision Wins
3

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Moicano
Duncan
Striking2.1 / 1.5Volume3.8 / 5.5Grappling5.0 / 5.2Wrestling3.5 / 3.6Submission5.4 / 5.0Pressure6.3 / 5.8
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.5
5.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
5.2
3.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.6
5.4
Submission
Submission attack frequency
5.0
6.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.8
3.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.5
Moicano
Strike Zones
Duncan
Moicano
Attacking
6HEAD1BODY0LEGS7 landed
Absorbing
5HEAD2BODY3LEGS10 absorbed
Duncan
Attacking
5HEAD2BODY3LEGS10 landed
Absorbing
6HEAD1BODY0LEGS7 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Moicano targets the head (86% of attacks) — Duncan absorbs 86% of strikes there
🎯Duncan targets the head (50% of attacks) — Moicano absorbs 50% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Moicano
RND
Duncan
0/0R00/0

Moicano · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.1
0105.2W5.0W5.0W5.4L5.0W5.5W3.2L2.0L5.0W2.5L6.0W6.1W5.7L5.0W5.7W6.5W5.9W3.5L6.5L6.4W2014-122018-082021-062024-042026-04
WinLossTrend

Duncan · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.8
0104.5W5.4W3.6L5.0W5.2W5.1W6.5W2.9L2023-032024-022025-032025-122026-04
WinLossTrend

Moicano · Last 5

W · Sub · R2
Chris DuncanRating 6.4
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan · 2026-04
L · Dec · R3
Beneil DariushRating 6.5
Decision
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · 2025-06
L · Sub · R1
Islam MakhachevRating 3.5
Submission
UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · 2025-01
W · R2
Benoit Saint DenisRating 5.9
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Saint Denis · 2024-09
W · KO · R2
Jalin TurnerRating 6.5
KO/TKO
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04

Duncan · Last 5

L · Sub · R2
Renato MoicanoRating 2.9
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan · 2026-04
W · Sub · R1
Terrance McKinneyRating 6.5
Submission
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · 2025-12
W · Dec · R3
Mateusz RebeckiRating 5.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Taira vs. Park · 2025-08
W · Sub · R2
Jordan VucenicRating 5.2
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · 2025-03
W · Sub · R1
Bolaji OkiRating 5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Saint Denis · 2024-09

News & Media

Renato Moicano · Chris Duncan
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