Renato Moicano vs Chris Duncan — UFC Fight Analysis & Result

METRICS GUIDE

Every stat on this page, explained

All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan

Las Vegas, USA

4 Apr 2026

Lightweight

45%

Moicano

55%

Duncan

Win Probability

Submission

Round 2 · 3:14

Renato Moicano

21 – 7

5'11"72" reachOrthodox37 yrsWell-Rounded

CFR 50

Chris Duncan

"The Problem"

15 – 3

Well-Rounded33 yrsOrthodox71" reach5'10"

CFR 60

★ Official Result

Renato MoicanowinsSubmissionR2 · 3:14

def. Chris Duncan · UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result

We predicted

Duncan

→

Actual result

Moicano wins

Submission · R2

Pre-fight analysis

This is a genuine toss-up — Moicano at 45% vs Duncan at 55% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 10 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Risk flags

Moicano's chin rating of 6 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout

MoicanoDuncan

Sig. Strikes

0.0

Strikes / min (SLpM)

0.0

—

Strike Accuracy

—

Moicano

Duncan

Physical Matchup

Height · Reach · Age · Stance

5'11"+

Height

5'10"

72"+

Reach

71"

Age

+33

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

Moicano

Duncan

Composite Fighter Rating

Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability

50.3

60.4

51.7

Performance Avg

53.2

Quality of Victory

Momentum Score

Moicano

Duncan

Striking

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

2.1

/ 10

1.5

/ 10

6.3

Style: Pressure

5.8

3.8

Style: Volume

5.5

1 KO wins

Finish Rate (strikes)

0 KO wins

Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Strike targetStrike target

Head

Body

Leg

RangeRange

7Distance10

0Clinch0

0Ground0

Moicano

Duncan

Grappling

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

5.0

/ 10

5.2

/ 10

3.5

Wrestling Style (/10)

3.6

5.4

Submission Style (/10)

5.0

Submission wins

Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Moicano

Duncan

Durability / Chin

Resilience against knockouts and stoppages

2 consec. KOs

Verdict

Never stopped

KO/TKO Losses

Sub Losses

Avg R1.3 stoppage

KO round context

—

11 fights ago

Last KO loss

—

Strikes absorbed / min

—

21/28 fights

Chin rating based on

8/18 fights

Moicano

Duncan

Form & Momentum

Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%

Upcoming

W · Sub · R2

L · Dec · R3

L · Sub · R1

W · R2

Last 5

L · Sub · R2

W · Sub · R1

W · Dec · R3

W · Sub · R2

W · Sub · R1

Moicano

Duncan

Finish Rate

Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission

62%

50%

KO / TKO Wins

Submission Wins

Decision Wins

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Moicano

Duncan

Fighter 1

Fighter 2

2.1

Striking

KO power & stand-up volume

1.5

5.0

Grappling

Ground control & clinch

5.2

3.5

Wrestling

Takedown threat & defence

3.6

5.4

Submission

Submission attack frequency

5.0

6.3

Pressure

Clinch/ground work rate

5.8

3.8

Volume

Decision-pace fighting

5.5

Moicano

Strike Zones

Duncan

Moicano

Attacking

7 landed

Absorbing

10 absorbed

Duncan

Attacking

10 landed

Absorbing

7 absorbed

Targeting Overlap

🎯Moicano targets the head (86% of attacks) — Duncan absorbs 86% of strikes there

🎯Duncan targets the head (50% of attacks) — Moicano absorbs 50% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Moicano

RND

Duncan

0/0R00/0

Moicano · Last 5

Upcoming

Brian Ortega

UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2 · 2026-09

W · Sub · R2

Chris Duncan

Submission

UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan · 2026-04

L · Dec · R3

Beneil Dariush

Decision

UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · 2025-06

L · Sub · R1

Islam Makhachev

Submission

UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · 2025-01

W · R2

Benoit Saint Denis

UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Saint Denis · 2024-09

Duncan · Last 5

L · Sub · R2

Renato Moicano

Submission

UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan · 2026-04

W · Sub · R1

Terrance McKinney

Submission

UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · 2025-12

W · Dec · R3

Mateusz Rebecki

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Taira vs. Park · 2025-08

W · Sub · R2

Jordan Vucenic

Submission

UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · 2025-03

W · Sub · R1

Bolaji Oki

Submission

UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Saint Denis · 2024-09

News & Media

Renato Moicano · Chris Duncan

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