UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2
New York City, USA
6 Nov 2021
Lightweight
VS
34%
Iaquinta
66%
Green
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 2:25
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Green
Green holds a meaningful edge at 66% per the CFR ratings — but Iaquinta has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 23 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Green has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Iaquinta's chin rating of 48 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Green has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Iaquinta
Green
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
5'10"
70"
Reach
+71"
39
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Iaquinta
Green
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
25.8
49.0
47.0
Performance Avg
45.9
38
Quality of Victory
38
51
Momentum Score
85
Iaquinta
Green
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.6
3.2
45%
Strike Accuracy
55%
5.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.6
4 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
23
3
Body
2
2
Leg
3
RangeRange
10Distance16
0Clinch0
0Ground12
Iaquinta
Green
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
1.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.9
0.9
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Iaquinta
Green
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
48
0
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
5
2
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.2 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
15/21 fights
Chin rating based on
30/52 fights
Iaquinta
Green
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
51
85
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 🔥 win streak
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R5
Last 5
W · Sub · R1
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R1
Iaquinta
Green
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
44%
44%
4
KO / TKO Wins
4
0
Submission Wins
3
5
Decision Wins
9
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Iaquinta
Green
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.6
1.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.9
0.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.9
4.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.8
5.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.6
IaquintaGreen
Strike Zones
Iaquinta
Attacking
10 landedAbsorbing
28 absorbedGreen
Attacking
28 landedAbsorbing
10 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Iaquinta targets the head (50% of attacks) — Green absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Green targets the head (82% of attacks) — Iaquinta absorbs 82% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Iaquinta
RND
Green
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Iaquinta · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Green · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Iaquinta · Last 5
L · KO · R1
King GreenRating 2.2KO/TKO
UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2 · 2021-11
L · Dec · R3
Dan HookerRating 6.4Decision
UFC 243: Whittaker vs. Adesanya · 2019-10
L · Dec · R5
Donald CerroneRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Iaquinta vs. Cowboy · 2019-05
W · Dec · R5
Kevin LeeRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Iaquinta · 2018-12
L · Dec · R5
Khabib NurmagomedovRating 5.5Decision
UFC 223: Khabib vs. Iaquinta · 2018-04
Green · Last 5
W · Sub · R1
Jeremy StephensRating 5.5Submission
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05
W · KO · R2
Daniel ZellhuberRating 5.6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh · 2026-02
W · Dec · R3
Lance Gibson Jr.Rating 5.9Decision
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Kape · 2025-12
L · KO · R1
Mauricio RuffyRating 3.2KO/TKO
UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev · 2025-03
L · Sub · R1
Paddy PimblettRating 3.2Submission
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · 2024-07