METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Almabayev
Las Vegas, USA
1 Mar 2025
Welterweight
VS
41%
Barlow
59%
Patterson
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 3:10
★ Official Result
Sam PattersonwinsKO/TKOR1 · 3:10
def. Danny Barlow · UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Almabayev
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Patterson
→
Actual result
Patterson wins
KO/TKO · R1
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Barlow at 41% vs Patterson at 59% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 23 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Patterson has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 19 points.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
BarlowPatterson
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Barlow
Patterson
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"
Height
+6'3"
79"+
Reach
78"
31
Age
+30
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Barlow
Patterson
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
49.8
72.6
42.5
Performance Avg
62.5
38
Quality of Victory
57
66
Momentum Score
98
Barlow
Patterson
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
6.0
/ 10
7.4
/ 10
5.0
Style: Pressure
9.1
5.0
Style: Volume
1.4
1 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
3 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
10
Head
14
2
Body
4
3
Leg
0
RangeRange
15Distance15
0Clinch0
0Ground3
Barlow
Patterson
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.2
/ 10
3.2
/ 10
0.8
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.2
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
4.0
0
Submission wins
2
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Barlow
Patterson
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
76
76
Moderate
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
6 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
4/11 fights
Chin rating based on
7/17 fights
Barlow
Patterson
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
66
98
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R3
Last 5
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
W · Sub · R1
Barlow
Patterson
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
100%
1
KO / TKO Wins
3
0
Submission Wins
2
1
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Barlow
Patterson
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
7.4
1.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.2
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.2
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
4.0
5.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
9.1
5.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
1.4
BarlowPatterson
Strike Zones
Barlow
Attacking
15 landedAbsorbing
18 absorbedPatterson
Attacking
18 landedAbsorbing
15 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Barlow targets the head (67% of attacks) — Patterson absorbs 67% of strikes there
🎯Patterson targets the head (78% of attacks) — Barlow absorbs 78% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Barlow
RND
Patterson
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Barlow · Last 4
L · Dec · R3
Djorden SantosDecision
UFC Fight Night: De Ridder vs. Allen · 2025-10
L · KO · R1
Sam PattersonKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Almabayev · 2025-03
W · Dec · R3
Nikolay VeretennikovDecision
UFC Fight Night: Tybura vs. Spivac 2 · 2024-08
W · KO · R3
Josh QuinlanKO/TKO
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · 2024-02
Patterson · Last 5
W · KO · R2
Santiago PonzinibbioKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov · 2026-07
L · Dec · R3
Michael PageDecision
UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy · 2026-03
W · KO · R1
Trey WatersKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Borralho · 2025-09
W · KO · R1
Danny BarlowKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Almabayev · 2025-03
W · Sub · R1
Kiefer CrosbieSubmission
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · 2024-07