UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Almabayev
Las Vegas, USA
1 Mar 2025
Welterweight
VS
42%
Barlow
58%
Patterson
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 3:10
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Patterson
This is a genuine toss-up — Barlow at 42% vs Patterson at 58% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 19 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Patterson has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 20 points.
Striking split: Patterson throws more volume but Barlow connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Barlow
Patterson
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"
Height
+6'3"
79"+
Reach
78"
30
Age
30
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Barlow
Patterson
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
49.8
69.2
42.5
Performance Avg
60.9
38
Quality of Victory
57
66
Momentum Score
85
Barlow
Patterson
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.6
2.4
50%
Strike Accuracy
43%
6.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.3
1 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
10
Head
14
2
Body
4
3
Leg
0
RangeRange
15Distance15
0Clinch0
0Ground3
Barlow
Patterson
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.2
/ 10
4.0
/ 10
0.8
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.8
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
5.0
0
Submission wins
2
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Barlow
Patterson
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
76
76
Moderate
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
5 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
4/11 fights
Chin rating based on
6/17 fights
Barlow
Patterson
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
66
85
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
W · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R1
Barlow
Patterson
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
100%
1
KO / TKO Wins
2
0
Submission Wins
2
1
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Barlow
Patterson
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.3
1.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.0
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.8
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
5.0
5.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
9.0
5.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
1.3
BarlowPatterson
Strike Zones
Barlow
Attacking
15 landedAbsorbing
18 absorbedPatterson
Attacking
18 landedAbsorbing
15 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Barlow targets the head (67% of attacks) — Patterson absorbs 67% of strikes there
🎯Patterson targets the head (78% of attacks) — Barlow absorbs 78% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Barlow
RND
Patterson
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Barlow · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Patterson · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Barlow · Last 4
L · Dec · R3
Djorden SantosRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: De Ridder vs. Allen · 2025-10
L · KO · R1
Sam PattersonRating 3.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Almabayev · 2025-03
W · Dec · R3
Nikolay VeretennikovRating 4.9Decision
UFC Fight Night: Tybura vs. Spivac 2 · 2024-08
W · KO · R3
Josh QuinlanRating 5.9KO/TKO
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · 2024-02
Patterson · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Michael PageRating 6.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy · 2026-03
W · KO · R1
Trey WatersRating 5.6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Borralho · 2025-09
W · KO · R1
Danny BarlowRating 5.7KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Almabayev · 2025-03
W · Sub · R1
Kiefer CrosbieRating 5Submission
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · 2024-07
W · Sub · R1
Yohan LainesseRating 5Submission
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