METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales
Las Vegas, USA
17 May 2025
Featherweight
VS
96%
Valle
4%
Matthews
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 2:54
★ Official Result
Yadier del VallewinsSubmissionR1 · 2:54
def. Connor Matthews · UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Valle
→
Actual result
Valle wins
Submission · R1
Pre-fight analysis
Valle is a strong favourite at 96% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 72 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Valle has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 56 points.
Risk flags
Matthews has a chin rating of 44 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
ValleMatthews
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Valle
Matthews
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"+
Height
5'8"
69"
Reach
+71"
30+
Age
34
Southpaw
Stance
Switch
Valle
Matthews
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
75.4
3.5
63.6
Performance Avg
0.0
56
Quality of Victory
0
100
Momentum Score
0
Valle
Matthews
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
4.8
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
9.3
Style: Pressure
0.0
1.5
Style: Volume
0.0
1 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
0 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
0
1
Body
0
4
Leg
3
RangeRange
6Distance3
0Clinch0
3Ground0
Valle
Matthews
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
5.3
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
3.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
6.7
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
2
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Valle
Matthews
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
98
44
Never stopped
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
0
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
1
—
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
4/11 fights
Chin rating based on
3/11 fights
Valle
Matthews
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
0
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R3
Valle
Matthews
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
0%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
2
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Valle
Matthews
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
5.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
3.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
6.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
9.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
1.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
ValleMatthews
Strike Zones
Valle
Attacking
9 landedAbsorbing
3 absorbedMatthews
Attacking
3 landedAbsorbing
9 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Valle targets the head (44% of attacks) — Matthews absorbs 44% of strikes there
🎯Matthews targets the legs (100% of attacks) — Valle absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Valle
RND
Matthews
0/0R00/0
Valle · Last 4
W · KO · R1
Darren ElkinsKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs. Salkilld · 2026-08
L · Dec · R3
Jordan LeavittDecision
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez · 2026-02
W · Sub · R1
Isaac DulgarianSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Garcia vs. Onama · 2025-11
W · Sub · R1
Connor MatthewsSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales · 2025-05
Matthews · Last 3
L · Sub · R1
Yadier del ValleSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales · 2025-05
L · KO · R1
Jose DelgadoKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Rodrigues · 2025-02
L · KO · R3
Dennis BuzukjaKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Fiorot · 2024-03