UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales
Las Vegas, USA
17 May 2025
Featherweight
VS
95%
Valle
5%
Matthews
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 2:54
Yadier
Yadier del Valle
"The Cuban Problem"
10 – 1
5'9"69" reachSouthpaw29 yrsSubmission Hunter
CFR 72
Connor
Connor Matthews
"The Controller"
7 – 4
Well-Rounded3-fight slide33 yrsSwitch71" reach5'8"
CFR 4

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Valle

Valle is a strong favourite at 95% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 68 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Valle has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 54 points.

Valle has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Matthews has a chin rating of 44 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Valle
Matthews
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"+
Height
5'8"
69"
Reach
+71"
29+
Age
33
Southpaw
Stance
Switch
Valle
Matthews
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
71.8
3.5
59.1
Performance Avg
0.0
54
Quality of Victory
0
95
Momentum Score
0
Valle
Matthews
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.8
0.5
48%
Strike Accuracy
24%
1.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
0
1
Body
0
4
Leg
3
RangeRange
6Distance3
0Clinch0
3Ground0
Valle
Matthews
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
8.0
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
5.6
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
10.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
2
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Valle
Matthews
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
98
44
Never stopped
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
0
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
1
—
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
3/11 fights
Chin rating based on
3/11 fights
Valle
Matthews
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
95
0
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R3
Valle
Matthews
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
2
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Valle
Matthews
Striking1.3 / 0.0Volume1.3 / 0.0Grappling8.0 / 0.0Wrestling5.6 / 0.0Submission10.0 / 0.0Pressure9.0 / 0.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
8.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
5.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
10.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
9.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
1.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
Valle
Strike Zones
Matthews
Valle
Attacking
4HEAD1BODY4LEGS9 landed
Absorbing
0HEAD0BODY3LEGS3 absorbed
Matthews
Attacking
0HEAD0BODY3LEGS3 landed
Absorbing
4HEAD1BODY4LEGS9 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Valle targets the head (44% of attacks) — Matthews absorbs 44% of strikes there
🎯Matthews targets the legs (100% of attacks) — Valle absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Valle
RND
Matthews
0/0R00/0

Valle · QOF Timeline

Avg: 6.1
0105.0W6.3W7.0L2025-052025-112026-02
WinLossTrend

Matthews · QOF Timeline

Avg: 3.6
0104.5L3.0L3.3L2024-032025-022025-05
WinLossTrend

Valle · Last 3

L · Dec · R3
Jordan LeavittRating 7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez · 2026-02
W · Sub · R1
Isaac DulgarianRating 6.3
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Garcia vs. Onama · 2025-11
W · Sub · R1
Connor MatthewsRating 5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales · 2025-05

Matthews · Last 3

L · Sub · R1
Yadier del ValleRating 3.3
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales · 2025-05
L · KO · R1
Jose DelgadoRating 3
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Rodrigues · 2025-02
L · KO · R3
Dennis BuzukjaRating 4.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Fiorot · 2024-03

News & Media

Yadier del Valle · Connor Matthews
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