UFC Fight Night: Gaethje vs. Vick
Lincoln, USA
25 Aug 2018
Lightweight
VS
79%
Gaethje
21%
Vick
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 1:27
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Gaethje
Gaethje is a strong favourite at 79% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 48 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Gaethje has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 21 points.
Gaethje has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Gaethje's chin rating of 10 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Vick has a chin rating of 10 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Gaethje
Vick
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
+6'3"
70"
Reach
+76"
37+
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Gaethje
Vick
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
66.1
17.7
63.6
Performance Avg
50.2
62
Quality of Victory
41
100
Momentum Score
71
Gaethje
Vick
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.1
1.8
62%
Strike Accuracy
39%
7.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.5
6 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
3
2
Body
5
2
Leg
2
RangeRange
6Distance10
0Clinch0
1Ground0
Gaethje
Vick
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.0
/ 10
3.7
/ 10
0.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.6
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
3.3
0
Submission wins
3
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Gaethje
Vick
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
10
10
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
3
KO/TKO Losses
4
2
Sub Losses
0
Avg R4.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
16/32 fights
Chin rating based on
14/18 fights
Gaethje
Vick
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
71
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
Upcoming
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R5
W · KO · R2
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
Gaethje
Vick
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
60%
56%
6
KO / TKO Wins
2
0
Submission Wins
3
4
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Gaethje
Vick
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
7.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.5
1.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.7
0.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.6
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
6.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.8
4.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.8
GaethjeVick
Strike Zones
Gaethje
Attacking
7 landedAbsorbing
10 absorbedVick
Attacking
10 landedAbsorbing
7 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Gaethje targets the head (43% of attacks) — Vick absorbs 43% of strikes there
🎯Vick targets the body (50% of attacks) — Gaethje absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Gaethje
RND
Vick
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Gaethje · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Vick · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.3WinLossTrend
Gaethje · Last 5
Upcoming
Ilia TopuriaUFC Freedom 250 · 2026-06
W · Dec · R5
Paddy PimblettRating 6.2Decision
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett · 2026-01
W · Dec · R3
Rafael FizievRating 5.5Decision
UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev · 2025-03
L · KO · R5
Max HollowayRating 5.1KO/TKO
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04
W · KO · R2
Dustin PoirierRating 6.4KO/TKO
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07
Vick · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Niko PriceRating 2.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Joanna vs. Waterson · 2019-10
L · KO · R1
Dan HookerRating 2.4KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Edwards · 2019-07
L · Dec · R3
Paul FelderRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Velasquez · 2019-02
L · KO · R1
Justin GaethjeRating 3.1KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Gaethje vs. Vick · 2018-08
W · Dec · R3
Francisco TrinaldoRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Medeiros · 2018-02