UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Till
Gdansk, Poland
21 Oct 2017
Women's Strawweight
VS
93%
Kowalkiewicz
7%
Esquibel
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Kowalkiewicz
Kowalkiewicz is a strong favourite at 93% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 30 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Kowalkiewicz has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 28 points.
Kowalkiewicz has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Kowalkiewicz's chin rating of 20 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Kowalkiewicz
Esquibel
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'3"+
Height
5'1"
64"
Reach
64"
40
Age
40
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Kowalkiewicz
Esquibel
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
32.7
2.6
35.6
Performance Avg
0.0
28
Quality of Victory
0
40
Momentum Score
0
Kowalkiewicz
Esquibel
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.1
1.5
42%
Strike Accuracy
34%
0.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
32
Head
16
14
Body
3
1
Leg
3
RangeRange
33Distance21
14Clinch1
0Ground0
Kowalkiewicz
Esquibel
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
3.0
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
2.1
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
1.1
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Kowalkiewicz
Esquibel
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
20
92
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
2
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
19/26 fights
Chin rating based on
4/12 fights
Kowalkiewicz
Esquibel
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
40
0
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Kowalkiewicz
Esquibel
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
11%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
0
8
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Kowalkiewicz
Esquibel
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
3.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
2.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
1.1
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
2.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
8.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
KowalkiewiczEsquibel
Strike Zones
Kowalkiewicz
Attacking
47 landedAbsorbing
22 absorbedEsquibel
Attacking
22 landedAbsorbing
47 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Kowalkiewicz targets the head (68% of attacks) — Esquibel absorbs 68% of strikes there
🎯Esquibel targets the head (73% of attacks) — Kowalkiewicz absorbs 73% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Kowalkiewicz
RND
Esquibel
0/0R00/0
Kowalkiewicz · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Esquibel · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.5WinLossTrend
Kowalkiewicz · Last 5
L · KO · R3
Julia PolastriRating 4.6KO/TKO
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L · Dec · R3
Denise GomesRating 6.8Decision
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Prates · 2024-11
L · Dec · R3
Iasmin LucindoRating 6.4Decision
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · 2024-05
W · Dec · R3
Diana BelbitaRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dawson vs. Green · 2023-10
W · Dec · R3
Vanessa DemopoulosRating 4.7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill · 2023-05
Esquibel · Last 4
L · Dec · R3
Hannah CifersRating 5.5Decision
UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2 · 2019-08
L · Dec · R3
Angela HillRating 5.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Hermansson · 2019-04
L · Dec · R3
Jessica AguilarRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs. Ivanov · 2018-07
L · Dec · R3
Karolina KowalkiewiczRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Till · 2017-10