UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3
New Orleans, USA
19 Jul 2025
Lightweight
VS
48%
Holloway
52%
Poirier
Win Probability
Decision
Round 5 · 5:00
Max
Max Holloway
"Blessed"
27 – 9
5'11"69" reachOrthodox34 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 56
Dustin
Dustin Poirier
"The Diamond"
30 – 10
Well-Rounded2-fight slide37 yrsSouthpaw72" reach5'9"
CFR 61

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Poirier

This is a genuine toss-up — Holloway at 48% vs Poirier at 52% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Striking split: Holloway throws more volume but Poirier connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Holloway's chin rating of 52 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Poirier has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Holloway
Poirier
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"+
Height
5'9"
69"
Reach
+72"
34+
Age
37
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Holloway
Poirier
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
56.2
61.4
56.8
Performance Avg
58.2
47
Quality of Victory
50
63
Momentum Score
100
Holloway
Poirier
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.2
1.7
52%
Strike Accuracy
54%
5.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.0
10 KOs
KO Finishes
10 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
22
Head
25
18
Body
0
6
Leg
0
RangeRange
46Distance24
0Clinch1
0Ground0
Holloway
Poirier
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.7
/ 10
2.2
/ 10
1.2
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.6
0.9
Submission Style (/10)
1.8
2
Submission wins
4
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Holloway
Poirier
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
52
0
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
3
1
Sub Losses
4
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.3 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
33/36 fights
Chin rating based on
32/40 fights
Holloway
Poirier
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
63
100
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
Upcoming
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
L · KO · R3
W · KO · R5
Last 5
L · Dec · R5
L · Sub · R5
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R2
W · Sub · R3
Holloway
Poirier
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
52%
64%
10
KO / TKO Wins
10
2
Submission Wins
4
11
Decision Wins
8

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Holloway
Poirier
Striking5.8 / 6.0Volume4.9 / 4.0Grappling1.7 / 2.2Wrestling1.2 / 1.6Submission0.9 / 1.8Pressure5.8 / 6.6
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.0
1.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.2
1.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.6
0.9
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.8
5.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.6
4.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.0
Holloway
Strike Zones
Poirier
Holloway
Attacking
22HEAD18BODY6LEGS46 landed
Absorbing
25HEAD0BODY0LEGS25 absorbed
Poirier
Attacking
25HEAD0BODY0LEGS25 landed
Absorbing
22HEAD18BODY6LEGS46 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Holloway targets the head (48% of attacks) — Poirier absorbs 48% of strikes there
🎯Poirier targets the head (100% of attacks) — Holloway absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Holloway
RND
Poirier
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Holloway · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.6
0102.8L4.5W5.2W4.5W5.5L7.5L5.2W6.2W5.5W5.0W4.5W6.0W6.4W5.0W4.5W5.2W5.7W5.7W5.7W6.8L4.5W7.0L7.0L5.0W6.1W7.0L5.9W5.7W7.1W5.1L5.8W6.9L2012-022014-082017-062021-112026-03
WinLossTrend

Poirier · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.1
0104.5W4.5W5.2W6.1W3.9L5.0W6.0L4.5W5.0W5.2W3.5L6.0W5.0W4.5W5.7W1.6L4.9W5.2W6.9W5.1W5.6W2.8L5.4W7.1W6.0W4.2L6.3W3.7L6.9W6.0L6.6L2011-012013-122017-022021-072025-07
WinLossTrend

Holloway · Last 5

Upcoming
Conor McGregor
UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · 2026-07
L · Dec · R5
Charles OliveiraRating 6.9
Decision
UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 · 2026-03
W · Dec · R5
Dustin PoirierRating 5.8
Decision
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
L · KO · R3
Ilia TopuriaRating 5.1
KO/TKO
UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · 2024-10
W · KO · R5
Justin GaethjeRating 7.1
KO/TKO
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04

Poirier · Last 5

L · Dec · R5
Max HollowayRating 6.6
Decision
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
L · Sub · R5
Islam MakhachevRating 6
Submission
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06
W · KO · R2
Benoit Saint DenisRating 6.9
KO/TKO
UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · 2024-03
L · KO · R2
Justin GaethjeRating 3.7
KO/TKO
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07
W · Sub · R3
Michael ChandlerRating 6.3
Submission
UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira · 2022-11

News & Media

Max Holloway · Dustin Poirier
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