UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Reis
Kansas City, USA
15 Apr 2017
Featherweight
VS
47%
Stephens
53%
Moicano
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Jeremy
Jeremy Stephens
"Lil' Heathen"
29 – 23
5'9"71" reachOrthodox40 yrs7-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 45
Renato
Renato Moicano
21 – 7
Well-Rounded37 yrsOrthodox72" reach5'11"
CFR 50

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Moicano

This is a genuine toss-up — Stephens at 47% vs Moicano at 53% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Moicano has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Stephens's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Moicano has a chin rating of 6 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Stephens
Moicano
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+5'11"
71"
Reach
+72"
40
Age
+37
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Stephens
Moicano
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
45.0
50.3
41.1
Performance Avg
51.7
40
Quality of Victory
43
76
Momentum Score
64
Stephens
Moicano
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
1.9
42%
Strike Accuracy
50%
5.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.1
7 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
16
Head
18
2
Body
1
5
Leg
5
RangeRange
21Distance23
2Clinch1
0Ground0
Stephens
Moicano
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
1.1
Grappling Style Score (/10)
5.0
0.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.5
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Stephens
Moicano
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
6
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
3
KO/TKO Losses
3
4
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.3 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
10 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
36/52 fights
Chin rating based on
20/28 fights
Stephens
Moicano
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
76
64
7-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
W · R2
W · KO · R2
Stephens
Moicano
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
47%
62%
7
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
7
8
Decision Wins
5

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Stephens
Moicano
Striking5.5 / 2.1Volume4.6 / 3.8Grappling1.1 / 5.0Wrestling0.8 / 3.5Submission0.0 / 5.4Pressure4.5 / 6.3
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.1
1.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
5.0
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.5
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
5.4
4.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.3
4.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.8
Stephens
Strike Zones
Moicano
Stephens
Attacking
16HEAD2BODY5LEGS23 landed
Absorbing
18HEAD1BODY5LEGS24 absorbed
Moicano
Attacking
18HEAD1BODY5LEGS24 landed
Absorbing
16HEAD2BODY5LEGS23 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Stephens targets the head (70% of attacks) — Moicano absorbs 70% of strikes there
🎯Moicano targets the head (75% of attacks) — Stephens absorbs 75% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Stephens
RND
Moicano
0/0R00/0

Stephens · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0102.8L4.5W5.2W5.5L5.7W2.8L5.5L4.0W4.5W5.5L5.5W4.5W5.5L5.5L1.5L4.5W5.0W5.0W6.0L6.9L5.5W6.6L4.5W5.5L6.3L4.5W6.9W5.2W2.0L5.5L7.1L3.2L2.6L6.5L2.2L2007-052010-092014-062018-022026-05
WinLossTrend

Moicano · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.1
0105.2W5.0W5.0W5.4L5.0W5.5W3.2L2.0L5.0W2.5L6.0W6.1W5.7L5.0W5.7W6.5W5.9W3.5L6.5L6.4W2014-122018-082021-062024-042026-04
WinLossTrend

Stephens · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
King GreenRating 2.2
Submission
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05
L · Dec · R3
Mason JonesRating 6.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo · 2025-05
L · Sub · R1
Mateusz GamrotRating 2.6
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. Moises · 2021-07
L · KO · R2
Calvin KattarRating 3.2
KO/TKO
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje · 2020-05
L · Dec · R3
Yair RodriguezRating 7.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Weidman · 2019-10

Moicano · Last 5

W · Sub · R2
Chris DuncanRating 6.4
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan · 2026-04
L · Dec · R3
Beneil DariushRating 6.5
Decision
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · 2025-06
L · Sub · R1
Islam MakhachevRating 3.5
Submission
UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · 2025-01
W · R2
Benoit Saint DenisRating 5.9
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Saint Denis · 2024-09
W · KO · R2
Jalin TurnerRating 6.5
KO/TKO
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04

News & Media

Jeremy Stephens · Renato Moicano
← Back to fights