METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson
Sacramento, USA
17 Dec 2016
Women's Bantamweight
VS
28%
Smith
72%
Aldana
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Leslie SmithwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Irene Aldana · UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Aldana
→
Actual result
Smith wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Aldana is a strong favourite at 72% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 31 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
SmithAldana
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Smith
Aldana
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
5'9"
66"
Reach
+68"
44
Age
+38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Smith
Aldana
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
19.4
50.5
47.6
Performance Avg
46.5
41
Quality of Victory
39
79
Momentum Score
81
Smith
Aldana
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
6.1
/ 10
4.9
/ 10
5.2
Style: Pressure
5.2
5.1
Style: Volume
5.1
2 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
3 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
38
Head
30
9
Body
3
3
Leg
5
RangeRange
45Distance32
5Clinch5
0Ground1
Smith
Aldana
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.2
/ 10
2.2
/ 10
0.8
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.5
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
1.3
0
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Smith
Aldana
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
74
88
Moderate
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
7/17 fights
Chin rating based on
14/23 fights
Smith
Aldana
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
79
81
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · R2
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · KO · R3
W · KO · R1
Smith
Aldana
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
50%
2
KO / TKO Wins
3
0
Submission Wins
1
2
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Smith
Aldana
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.9
1.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.2
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.5
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.3
5.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.2
5.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.1
SmithAldana
Strike Zones
Smith
Attacking
50 landedAbsorbing
38 absorbedAldana
Attacking
38 landedAbsorbing
50 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Smith targets the head (76% of attacks) — Aldana absorbs 76% of strikes there
🎯Aldana targets the head (79% of attacks) — Smith absorbs 79% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Smith
RND
Aldana
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Smith · Last 5
W · KO · R2
Amanda LemosKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs. Ponzinibbio · 2017-07
W · Dec · R3
Irene AldanaDecision
UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson · 2016-12
L · KO · R1
Cristiane JustinoKO/TKO
UFC 198: Werdum vs Miocic · 2016-05
W · Dec · R3
Rin NakaiDecision
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Mir · 2016-03
L · R2
Jessica EyeUFC 180: Werdum vs Hunt · 2014-11
Aldana · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Norma DumontDecision
UFC 306: Riyadh Season Noche UFC · 2024-09
W · Dec · R3
Karol RosaDecision
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
L · Dec · R5
Amanda NunesDecision
UFC 289: Nunes vs. Aldana · 2023-06
W · KO · R3
Macy ChiassonKO/TKO
UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson · 2022-09
W · KO · R1
Yana SantosKO/TKO
UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3 · 2021-07