UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira
Las Vegas, USA
28 Jun 2025
Lightweight
VS
59%
McKinney
41%
Borshchev
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 0:55
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: McKinney
This is a genuine toss-up — McKinney at 59% vs Borshchev at 41% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 20 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
McKinney has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 11 points.
McKinney has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
McKinney's chin rating of 10 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Borshchev has a chin rating of 68 — a potential KO vulnerability.
McKinney
Borshchev
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
+5'11"
73"+
Reach
69"
31+
Age
34
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
McKinney
Borshchev
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
65.7
45.4
59.3
Performance Avg
41.3
58
Quality of Victory
47
98
Momentum Score
40
McKinney
Borshchev
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
5.1
1.8
56%
Strike Accuracy
48%
7.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
7.3
5 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
0
0
Body
1
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
0Distance2
0Clinch0
1Ground0
McKinney
Borshchev
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.3
Sub Attempts / fight
0.3
3.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.8
2.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
McKinney
Borshchev
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
10
68
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
3
KO/TKO Losses
0
2
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.3 stoppage
KO round context
—
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
13/26 fights
Chin rating based on
10/15 fights
McKinney
Borshchev
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
98
40
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
W · KO · R1
L · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R1
W · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
McKinney
Borshchev
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
67%
5
KO / TKO Wins
2
3
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
McKinney
Borshchev
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
7.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
7.3
3.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.8
2.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.6
3.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
8.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.7
1.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.3
McKinneyBorshchev
Strike Zones
McKinney
Attacking
1 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedBorshchev
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
1 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯McKinney targets the head (100% of attacks) — Borshchev absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Borshchev targets the body (50% of attacks) — McKinney absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
McKinney
RND
Borshchev
0/0R00/0
McKinney · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.4WinLossTrend
Borshchev · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
McKinney · Last 5
W · KO · R1
Kyle NelsonRating 5.1KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer · 2026-03
L · Sub · R1
Chris DuncanRating 2.8Submission
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · 2025-12
W · Sub · R1
Viacheslav BorshchevRating 5.5Submission
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · 2025-06
W · KO · R1
Damir HadzovicRating 5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Imavov · 2025-02
L · KO · R1
Esteban RibovicsRating 2.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nascimento · 2024-05
Borshchev · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Matheus CamiloRating 5.6Decision
UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev · 2025-11
L · Sub · R1
Terrance McKinneyRating 3Submission
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · 2025-06
L · Dec · R3
Tom NolanRating 7Decision
UFC 312: Du Plessis vs. Strickland 2 · 2025-02
W · Dec · R3
James LlontopRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Borralho · 2024-08
L · Sub · R2
Chase HooperRating 3.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nascimento · 2024-05