UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. Anders
Sao Paulo, Brazil
22 Sept 2018
Heavyweight
VS
56%
Sakai
44%
Sherman
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 3 · 4:03
AS
Augusto Sakai
16 – 5
6'3"77" reachOrthodox35 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 39
Chase
Chase Sherman
"The Vanilla Gorilla"
16 – 12
Striker2-fight slide36 yrsOrthodox78" reach6'4"
CFR 30

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Sakai

This is a genuine toss-up — Sakai at 56% vs Sherman at 44% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 9 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Striking split: Sherman throws more volume but Sakai connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Sakai's chin rating of 12 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Sherman has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Sakai
Sherman
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"
Height
+6'4"
77"
Reach
+78"
35+
Age
36
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Sakai
Sherman
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
38.9
30.1
44.4
Performance Avg
38.4
37
Quality of Victory
46
100
Momentum Score
46
Sakai
Sherman
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.5
2.4
50%
Strike Accuracy
50%
5.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
8.0
2 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
47
Head
12
11
Body
9
2
Leg
3
RangeRange
23Distance18
25Clinch6
12Ground0
Sakai
Sherman
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.4
/ 10
0.6
/ 10
1.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.4
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Sakai
Sherman
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
12
0
4 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
4
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
2
Avg R2.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
8 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
9/21 fights
Chin rating based on
15/28 fights
Sakai
Sherman
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
46
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R5
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R1
Sakai
Sherman
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
40%
75%
2
KO / TKO Wins
3
0
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Sakai
Sherman
Striking5.1 / 8.0Volume5.9 / 2.5Grappling1.4 / 0.6Wrestling1.0 / 0.4Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure4.5 / 6.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
8.0
1.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.6
1.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.4
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.0
5.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.5
Sakai
Strike Zones
Sherman
Sakai
Attacking
47HEAD11BODY2LEGS60 landed
Absorbing
12HEAD9BODY3LEGS24 absorbed
Sherman
Attacking
12HEAD9BODY3LEGS24 landed
Absorbing
47HEAD11BODY2LEGS60 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Sakai targets the head (78% of attacks) — Sherman absorbs 78% of strikes there
🎯Sherman targets the head (50% of attacks) — Sakai absorbs 50% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Sakai
RND
Sherman
0/0R00/0

Sakai · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.3
0105.5W5.2W5.4W4.5W4.0L2.6L3.2L3.3L4.8W2018-092020-052021-122023-02
WinLossTrend

Sherman · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.6
0105.5L2.8L5.2W4.5W1.5L5.5L4.2L5.2W6.2L5.5L1.5L2.3L5.5W7.0L6.0L2016-082017-112021-042022-072023-05
WinLossTrend

Sakai · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
Don'Tale MayesRating 4.8
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Muniz vs. Allen · 2023-02
L · KO · R2
Serghei SpivacRating 3.3
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Hill · 2022-08
L · KO · R2
Tai TuivasaRating 3.2
KO/TKO
UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier · 2021-12
L · KO · R1
Jairzinho RozenstruikRating 2.6
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Sakai · 2021-06
L · KO · R5
Alistair OvereemRating 4
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Sakai · 2020-09

Sherman · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Karl WilliamsRating 6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Almeida · 2023-05
L · Dec · R3
Waldo Cortes AcostaRating 7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Nzechukwu vs. Cutelaba · 2022-11
W · KO · R3
Jared VanderaaRating 5.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Fiziev · 2022-07
L · Sub · R1
Alexandr RomanovRating 2.3
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Vera · 2022-04
L · Sub · R1
Jake CollierRating 1.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Chikadze · 2022-01

News & Media

Augusto Sakai · Chase Sherman
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