UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz
New York City, USA
2 Nov 2019
Featherweight
VS
57%
Arce
43%
Dawodu
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Julio
Julio Arce
19 – 6
5'7"70" reachSouthpaw36 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 49
HD
Hakeem Dawodu
"Mean"
13 – 4
Well-Rounded2-fight slide34 yrsOrthodox73" reach5'8"
CFR 37

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Arce

This is a genuine toss-up — Arce at 57% vs Dawodu at 43% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 12 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Arce has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 13 points.

Dawodu has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Arce
Dawodu
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
+5'8"
70"
Reach
+73"
36
Age
+34
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Arce
Dawodu
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
49.4
37.1
49.5
Performance Avg
41.5
43
Quality of Victory
29
65
Momentum Score
80
Arce
Dawodu
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.7
2.3
36%
Strike Accuracy
54%
6.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.9
3 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
12
Head
9
5
Body
16
0
Leg
3
RangeRange
15Distance20
2Clinch8
0Ground0
Arce
Dawodu
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
2.1
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.0
1.5
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.4
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Arce
Dawodu
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
72
82
Moderate
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
10/25 fights
Chin rating based on
10/17 fights
Arce
Dawodu
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
65
80
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R2
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Arce
Dawodu
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
67%
17%
3
KO / TKO Wins
1
1
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
5

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Arce
Dawodu
Striking6.2 / 2.9Volume3.9 / 7.9Grappling2.1 / 2.0Wrestling1.5 / 1.4Submission1.7 / 0.0Pressure6.5 / 3.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.9
2.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.0
1.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.4
1.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.0
3.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.9
Arce
Strike Zones
Dawodu
Arce
Attacking
12HEAD5BODY0LEGS17 landed
Absorbing
9HEAD16BODY3LEGS28 absorbed
Dawodu
Attacking
9HEAD16BODY3LEGS28 landed
Absorbing
12HEAD5BODY0LEGS17 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Arce targets the head (71% of attacks) — Dawodu absorbs 71% of strikes there
🎯Dawodu targets the body (57% of attacks) — Arce absorbs 57% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Arce
RND
Dawodu
0/0R00/0

Arce · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.4
0105.2W5.5W5.5L5.7W5.6L5.2W4.1L5.5W6.4L5.6W2018-012019-052021-112024-03
WinLossTrend

Dawodu · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0101.5L4.5W4.5W5.5W5.2W5.0W6.8L4.5W5.7L6.0L2018-032019-072021-062023-08
WinLossTrend

Arce · Last 5

W · KO · R2
Herbert BurnsRating 5.6
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Fiorot · 2024-03
L · Dec · R3
Montel JacksonRating 6.4
Decision
UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira · 2022-11
W · Dec · R3
Daniel SantosRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. The Korean Zombie · 2022-04
L · KO · R2
Song YadongRating 4.1
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Rodriguez · 2021-11
W · KO · R2
Andre EwellRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Dillashaw · 2021-07

Dawodu · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Cub SwansonRating 6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Dos Anjos · 2023-08
L · Dec · R3
Julian ErosaRating 5.7
Decision
UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson · 2022-09
W · Dec · R3
Michael TrizanoRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Strickland · 2022-02
L · Dec · R3
Movsar EvloevRating 6.8
Decision
UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2 · 2021-06
W · Dec · R3
Zubaira TukhugovRating 5
Decision
UFC 253: Adesanya vs. Costa · 2020-09

News & Media

Julio Arce · Hakeem Dawodu
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