UFC Fight Night: Stephens vs. Choi
St. Louis, USA
14 Jan 2018
Featherweight
VS
55%
Elkins
45%
Johnson
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 2:22
Darren
Darren Elkins
"The Damage"
29 – 12
5'10"71" reachOrthodox42 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 45
Michael
Michael Johnson
"The Menace"
25 – 20
Well-Rounded39 yrsSouthpaw73" reach5'10"
CFR 37

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Elkins

This is a genuine toss-up — Elkins at 55% vs Johnson at 45% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 8 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Johnson has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Elkins's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Johnson has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Elkins
Johnson
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
5'10"
71"
Reach
+73"
42
Age
+39
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Elkins
Johnson
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
44.7
36.8
46.3
Performance Avg
42.5
35
Quality of Victory
38
66
Momentum Score
35
Elkins
Johnson
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
1.4
38%
Strike Accuracy
39%
3.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.8
4 KOs
KO Finishes
6 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
1
1
Body
1
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
2Distance2
0Clinch0
1Ground0
Elkins
Johnson
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
2.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.5
1.9
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.1
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Elkins
Johnson
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
0
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
4
KO/TKO Losses
4
1
Sub Losses
5
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.3 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
30/41 fights
Chin rating based on
32/45 fights
Elkins
Johnson
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
66
35
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Elkins
Johnson
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
37%
38%
4
KO / TKO Wins
6
3
Submission Wins
0
12
Decision Wins
10

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Elkins
Johnson
Striking3.4 / 4.8Volume6.3 / 6.0Grappling2.8 / 1.5Wrestling1.9 / 1.1Submission1.6 / 0.0Pressure4.5 / 4.1
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.8
2.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.5
1.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.1
1.6
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.1
6.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.0
Elkins
Strike Zones
Johnson
Elkins
Attacking
2HEAD1BODY0LEGS3 landed
Absorbing
1HEAD1BODY0LEGS2 absorbed
Johnson
Attacking
1HEAD1BODY0LEGS2 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD1BODY0LEGS3 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Elkins targets the head (67% of attacks) — Johnson absorbs 67% of strikes there
🎯Johnson targets the head (50% of attacks) — Elkins absorbs 50% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Elkins
RND
Johnson
0/0R00/0

Elkins · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0105.0W2.9L4.5W4.5W4.5W4.5W5.0W1.5L4.5W6.0L4.5W5.5L4.5W4.5W4.5W5.5W4.5W5.3W7.0L4.0L5.5L6.2L5.5W5.2W2.0L4.5W6.0L5.5W5.4W1.7L2010-032013-082017-072021-122025-04
WinLossTrend

Johnson · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.8
0105.5L5.0W1.5L4.5W5.0W5.2W5.5L4.0L4.5W5.2W4.5W5.0W6.5L5.5L6.3W4.0L3.7L3.2L5.2W4.5W4.1L5.5L3.0L6.0L5.2W5.7L4.6W3.8L5.3W6.0W4.9W4.0L2010-122013-082017-072022-052026-03
WinLossTrend

Elkins · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Julian ErosaRating 1.7
KO/TKO
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W · Dec · R3
Daniel PinedaRating 5.4
Decision
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W · Sub · R3
TJ BrownRating 5.5
Submission
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L · Dec · R3
Jonathan PearceRating 6
Decision
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W · Dec · R3
Tristan ConnellyRating 4.5
Decision
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Johnson · Last 5

L · KO · R2
Drew DoberRating 4
KO/TKO
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W · Dec · R3
Daniel ZellhuberRating 4.9
Decision
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W · KO · R2
Ottman AzaitarRating 6
KO/TKO
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W · Dec · R3
Darrius FlowersRating 5.3
Decision
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L · KO · R2
Diego FerreiraRating 3.8
KO/TKO
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News & Media

Darren Elkins · Michael Johnson
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