METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 224: Nunes vs. Pennington
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
12 May 2018
Middleweight
VS
32%
Souza
68%
Gastelum
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Kelvin GastelumwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Jacare Souza · UFC 224: Nunes vs. Pennington
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Gastelum
→
Actual result
Gastelum wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Gastelum holds a meaningful edge at 68% per the CFR ratings — but Souza has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 22 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Souza has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 12 points.
Risk flags
Souza's chin rating of 36 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Gastelum has a chin rating of 38 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
SouzaGastelum
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Souza
Gastelum
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"+
Height
5'9"
72"+
Reach
71"
46
Age
+34
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Souza
Gastelum
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
19.5
41.4
54.6
Performance Avg
47.4
53
Quality of Victory
42
56
Momentum Score
28
Souza
Gastelum
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
5.6
/ 10
3.3
/ 10
7.9
Style: Pressure
4.2
2.0
Style: Volume
6.3
4 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
3 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
13
Head
21
5
Body
1
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
18Distance20
1Clinch2
0Ground0
Souza
Gastelum
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.8
/ 10
2.7
/ 10
2.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.9
4.4
Submission Style (/10)
1.4
4
Submission wins
2
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Souza
Gastelum
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
36
38
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
4
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
—
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
16/36 fights
Chin rating based on
26/32 fights
Souza
Gastelum
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
56
28
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R5
W · KO · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
Souza
Gastelum
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
89%
36%
4
KO / TKO Wins
3
4
Submission Wins
2
1
Decision Wins
9
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Souza
Gastelum
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.3
3.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.7
2.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.9
4.4
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.4
7.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.2
2.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.3
SouzaGastelum
Strike Zones
Souza
Attacking
19 landedAbsorbing
22 absorbedGastelum
Attacking
22 landedAbsorbing
19 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Souza targets the head (68% of attacks) — Gastelum absorbs 68% of strikes there
🎯Gastelum targets the head (95% of attacks) — Souza absorbs 95% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Souza
RND
Gastelum
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Souza · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Andre MunizSubmission
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L · KO · R1
Kevin HollandKO/TKO
UFC 256: Figueiredo vs. Moreno · 2020-12
L · Dec · R5
Jan BlachowiczDecision
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Jacare · 2019-11
L · Dec · R5
Jack HermanssonDecision
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Hermansson · 2019-04
W · KO · R3
Chris WeidmanKO/TKO
UFC 230: Cormier vs. Lewis · 2018-11
Gastelum · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Vicente LuqueSubmission
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W · Dec · R3
Dustin StoltzfusDecision
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L · Dec · R3
Joe PyferDecision
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · 2025-06
W · Dec · R3
Daniel RodriguezDecision
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L · Sub · R3
Sean BradySubmission
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