UFC 224: Nunes vs. Pennington
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
12 May 2018
Middleweight
VS
32%
Souza
68%
Gastelum
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Gastelum
Gastelum holds a meaningful edge at 68% per the CFR ratings — but Souza has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 22 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Souza has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 12 points.
Souza has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Souza's chin rating of 36 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Gastelum has a chin rating of 38 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Souza
Gastelum
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"+
Height
5'9"
72"+
Reach
71"
46
Age
+34
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Souza
Gastelum
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
19.5
41.4
54.6
Performance Avg
47.4
53
Quality of Victory
42
56
Momentum Score
28
Souza
Gastelum
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.5
1.3
56%
Strike Accuracy
43%
5.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.3
4 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
13
Head
21
5
Body
1
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
18Distance20
1Clinch2
0Ground0
Souza
Gastelum
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.3
3.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.7
2.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.9
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Souza
Gastelum
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
36
38
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
4
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
—
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
16/36 fights
Chin rating based on
26/32 fights
Souza
Gastelum
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
56
28
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R5
W · KO · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
Souza
Gastelum
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
89%
36%
4
KO / TKO Wins
3
4
Submission Wins
2
1
Decision Wins
9
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Souza
Gastelum
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.3
3.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.7
2.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.9
4.4
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.4
7.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.2
2.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.3
SouzaGastelum
Strike Zones
Souza
Attacking
19 landedAbsorbing
22 absorbedGastelum
Attacking
22 landedAbsorbing
19 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Souza targets the head (68% of attacks) — Gastelum absorbs 68% of strikes there
🎯Gastelum targets the head (95% of attacks) — Souza absorbs 95% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Souza
RND
Gastelum
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Souza · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Gastelum · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Souza · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Andre MunizRating 2.4Submission
UFC 262: Oliveira vs. Chandler · 2021-05
L · KO · R1
Kevin HollandRating 2.1KO/TKO
UFC 256: Figueiredo vs. Moreno · 2020-12
L · Dec · R5
Jan BlachowiczRating 6.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Jacare · 2019-11
L · Dec · R5
Jack HermanssonRating 6.4Decision
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Hermansson · 2019-04
W · KO · R3
Chris WeidmanRating 6.3KO/TKO
UFC 230: Cormier vs. Lewis · 2018-11
Gastelum · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Vicente LuqueRating 3Submission
UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg · 2026-04
W · Dec · R3
Dustin StoltzfusRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva · 2025-09
L · Dec · R3
Joe PyferRating 7.5Decision
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · 2025-06
W · Dec · R3
Daniel RodriguezRating 5.4Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Aliskerov · 2024-06
L · Sub · R3
Sean BradyRating 5.1Submission
UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan · 2023-12