UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. The Korean Zombie
Jacksonville, USA
9 Apr 2022
Women's Strawweight
VS
54%
Dern
46%
Pennington
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Mackenzie
Mackenzie Dern
16 – 5
5'4"63" reachOrthodox33 yrs3-fight win streakWell-Rounded
CFR 60
Tecia
Tecia Pennington
"Tiny Tornado"
15 – 8
Well-Rounded36 yrsOrthodox60" reach5'1"
CFR 50

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Dern

This is a genuine toss-up — Dern at 54% vs Pennington at 46% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 10 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Dern has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 12 points.

Pennington has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Dern
Pennington
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'4"+
Height
5'1"
63"+
Reach
60"
33+
Age
36
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Dern
Pennington
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
59.6
49.8
51.1
Performance Avg
39.8
39
Quality of Victory
28
94
Momentum Score
89
Dern
Pennington
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
1.9
44%
Strike Accuracy
51%
1.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.2
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
16
Head
12
4
Body
10
0
Leg
17
RangeRange
19Distance38
1Clinch0
0Ground1
Dern
Pennington
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
—
5.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.7
3.5
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.9
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Dern
Pennington
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
70
84
Moderate
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
16/21 fights
Chin rating based on
19/23 fights
Dern
Pennington
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
94
89
3-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
W · Dec · R5
W · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Dern
Pennington
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
46%
9%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
5
Submission Wins
1
6
Decision Wins
10

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Dern
Pennington
Striking1.4 / 1.2Volume5.7 / 7.7Grappling5.0 / 2.7Wrestling3.5 / 1.9Submission4.5 / 0.9Pressure5.2 / 2.4
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.2
5.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.7
3.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.9
4.5
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.9
5.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
2.4
5.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.7
Dern
Strike Zones
Pennington
Dern
Attacking
16HEAD4BODY0LEGS20 landed
Absorbing
12HEAD10BODY17LEGS39 absorbed
Pennington
Attacking
12HEAD10BODY17LEGS39 landed
Absorbing
16HEAD4BODY0LEGS20 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Dern targets the head (80% of attacks) — Pennington absorbs 80% of strikes there
🎯Pennington targets the legs (44% of attacks) — Dern absorbs 44% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Dern
RND
Pennington
0/0R00/0

Dern · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.2
0104.5W5.0W5.6L5.0W5.0W5.2W5.0W6.2L5.2W6.5L4.6W3.5L6.6L5.0W5.4W5.2W2018-032020-092022-042024-022025-10
WinLossTrend

Pennington · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.4
0104.5W4.6W4.5W6.9L4.5W5.2W4.5W6.3L5.5L7.3L6.2L4.5W4.7W4.6W6.7L6.2L4.8W4.5W6.8L2014-122017-072019-082024-052025-11
WinLossTrend

Dern · Last 5

W · Dec · R5
Virna JandirobaRating 5.2
Decision
UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane · 2025-10
W · Sub · R3
Amanda RibasRating 5.4
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 · 2025-01
W · Dec · R3
Loopy GodinezRating 5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · 2024-08
L · Dec · R3
Amanda LemosRating 6.6
Decision
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · 2024-02
L · KO · R2
Jessica AndradeRating 3.5
KO/TKO
UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira · 2023-11

Pennington · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Denise GomesRating 6.8
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brown · 2025-11
W · Dec · R3
Luana PinheiroRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales · 2025-05
W · Dec · R3
Carla EsparzaRating 4.8
Decision
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10
L · Dec · R3
Tabatha RicciRating 6.2
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nascimento · 2024-05
L · Dec · R3
Mackenzie DernRating 6.7
Decision
UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. The Korean Zombie · 2022-04

News & Media

Mackenzie Dern · Tecia Pennington
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