Mackenzie Dern vs Tecia Pennington — UFC Fight Analysis & Result

METRICS GUIDE

Every stat on this page, explained

All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. The Korean Zombie

Jacksonville, USA

9 Apr 2022

Women's Strawweight

55%

Dern

45%

Pennington

Win Probability

Decision

Round 3 · 5:00

Mackenzie Dern

16 – 5

5'4"63" reachOrthodox33 yrs4-fight win streakWell-Rounded

CFR 60

Tecia Pennington

"Tiny Tornado"

15 – 8

Well-Rounded37 yrsOrthodox60" reach5'1"

CFR 50

★ Official Result

Mackenzie DernwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00

def. Tecia Pennington · UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. The Korean Zombie

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result

We predicted

Dern

→

Actual result

Dern wins

Decision · R3

Pre-fight analysis

This is a genuine toss-up — Dern at 55% vs Pennington at 45% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 11 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Dern has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 13 points.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout

DernPennington

Sig. Strikes

0.0

Strikes / min (SLpM)

0.0

—

Strike Accuracy

—

Dern

Pennington

Physical Matchup

Height · Reach · Age · Stance

5'4"+

Height

5'1"

63"+

Reach

60"

33+

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

Dern

Pennington

Composite Fighter Rating

Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability

60.4

49.8

52.7

Performance Avg

39.8

Quality of Victory

Momentum Score

Dern

Pennington

Striking

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

1.4

/ 10

1.2

/ 10

5.0

Style: Pressure

2.4

6.1

Style: Volume

7.7

0 KO wins

Finish Rate (strikes)

0 KO wins

Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Strike targetStrike target

Head

Body

Leg

RangeRange

19Distance38

1Clinch0

0Ground1

Dern

Pennington

Grappling

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

4.7

/ 10

2.7

/ 10

3.3

Wrestling Style (/10)

1.9

4.2

Submission Style (/10)

0.9

Submission wins

Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Dern

Pennington

Durability / Chin

Resilience against knockouts and stoppages

Moderate

Verdict

Never stopped

KO/TKO Losses

Sub Losses

Avg R2.0 stoppage

KO round context

—

5 fights ago

Last KO loss

—

Strikes absorbed / min

—

17/21 fights

Chin rating based on

19/23 fights

Dern

Pennington

Form & Momentum

Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%

4-fight 🔥 win streak

Current form

W · Dec · R5

W · Sub · R3

W · Dec · R3

L · Dec · R3

Last 5

L · Dec · R3

W · Dec · R3

L · Dec · R3

Dern

Pennington

Finish Rate

Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission

42%

KO / TKO Wins

Submission Wins

Decision Wins

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Dern

Pennington

Fighter 1

Fighter 2

1.4

Striking

KO power & stand-up volume

1.2

4.7

Grappling

Ground control & clinch

2.7

3.3

Wrestling

Takedown threat & defence

1.9

4.2

Submission

Submission attack frequency

0.9

5.0

Pressure

Clinch/ground work rate

2.4

6.1

Volume

Decision-pace fighting

7.7

Dern

Strike Zones

Pennington

Dern

Attacking

20 landed

Absorbing

39 absorbed

Pennington

Attacking

39 landed

Absorbing

20 absorbed

Targeting Overlap

🎯Dern targets the head (80% of attacks) — Pennington absorbs 80% of strikes there

🎯Pennington targets the legs (44% of attacks) — Dern absorbs 44% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Dern

RND

Pennington

0/0R00/0

Dern · Last 5

W · Dec · R5

Gillian Robertson

Decision

UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry · 2026-08

W · Dec · R5

Virna Jandiroba

Decision

UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane · 2025-10

W · Sub · R3

Amanda Ribas

Submission

UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 · 2025-01

W · Dec · R3

Loopy Godinez

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · 2024-08

L · Dec · R3

Amanda Lemos

Decision

UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · 2024-02

Pennington · Last 5

L · Dec · R3

Denise Gomes

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brown · 2025-11

W · Dec · R3

Luana Pinheiro

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales · 2025-05

W · Dec · R3

Carla Esparza

Decision

UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10

L · Dec · R3

Tabatha Ricci

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nascimento · 2024-05

L · Dec · R3

Mackenzie Dern

Decision

UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. The Korean Zombie · 2022-04

News & Media

Mackenzie Dern · Tecia Pennington

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