UFC 207: Nunes vs. Rousey
Las Vegas, USA
30 Dec 2016
Welterweight
VS
27%
Thatch
73%
Price
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 4:30
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Price
Price is a strong favourite at 73% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 31 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Thatch has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 11 points.
Price has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Thatch's chin rating of 52 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Price has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Thatch
Price
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"+
Height
6'0"
74"
Reach
+76"
40
Age
+36
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
Thatch
Price
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
17.8
48.4
49.3
Performance Avg
46.0
60
Quality of Victory
49
33
Momentum Score
65
Thatch
Price
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
2.6
45%
Strike Accuracy
46%
10.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.8
2 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
3
0
Body
1
4
Leg
2
RangeRange
5Distance4
3Clinch1
0Ground1
Thatch
Price
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
0.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.6
0.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Thatch
Price
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
52
0
Never stopped
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
0
KO/TKO Losses
5
4
Sub Losses
3
—
KO round context
Avg R1.6 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
6/16 fights
Chin rating based on
21/27 fights
Thatch
Price
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
33
65
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R4
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Thatch
Price
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
75%
2
KO / TKO Wins
4
0
Submission Wins
2
0
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Thatch
Price
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
10.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.8
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.6
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.8
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.5
8.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.5
0.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.8
ThatchPrice
Strike Zones
Thatch
Attacking
8 landedAbsorbing
6 absorbedPrice
Attacking
6 landedAbsorbing
8 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Thatch targets the head (50% of attacks) — Price absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Price targets the head (50% of attacks) — Thatch absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Thatch
RND
Price
0/0R00/0
Thatch · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.7WinLossTrend
Price · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.6WinLossTrend
Thatch · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Niko PriceRating 2.2Submission
UFC 207: Nunes vs. Rousey · 2016-12
L · Sub · R3
Siyar BahadurzadaRating 4Submission
UFC 196: McGregor vs Diaz · 2016-03
L · Sub · R1
Gunnar NelsonRating 2.6Submission
UFC 189: Mendes vs McGregor · 2015-07
L · Sub · R4
Benson HendersonRating 3.4Submission
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs Thatch · 2015-02
W · KO · R1
Paulo ThiagoRating 5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Henderson 2 · 2013-11
Price · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Michael ChiesaRating 2.3Submission
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer · 2026-03
L · KO · R1
Nikolay VeretennikovRating 1.9KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira · 2026-02
L · Sub · R2
Jacobe SmithRating 5.1Submission
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · 2025-06
L · Dec · R3
Themba GorimboRating 5.9Decision
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira · 2024-10
W · Dec · R3
Alex MoronoRating 4.5Decision
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06