UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Dolidze 2
Las Vegas, USA
15 Mar 2025
Lightweight
VS
62%
Hernandez
38%
Holobaugh
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Hernandez
Hernandez holds a meaningful edge at 62% per the CFR ratings — but Holobaugh has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 21 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Hernandez throws more volume but Holobaugh connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Hernandez's chin rating of 14 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Holobaugh has a chin rating of 46 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Hernandez
Holobaugh
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+5'11"
72"+
Reach
70"
33+
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Hernandez
Holobaugh
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
52.9
32.1
47.4
Performance Avg
31.2
42
Quality of Victory
37
90
Momentum Score
20
Hernandez
Holobaugh
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.8
1.1
43%
Strike Accuracy
47%
6.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.4
5 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
7
Head
5
0
Body
2
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
2Distance6
0Clinch1
5Ground0
Hernandez
Holobaugh
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
1.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
5.2
0.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Hernandez
Holobaugh
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
14
46
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
3
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
2
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
8 fights ago
Last KO loss
7 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
18/27 fights
Chin rating based on
9/32 fights
Hernandez
Holobaugh
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
90
20
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
Hernandez
Holobaugh
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
50%
5
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
1
5
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Hernandez
Holobaugh
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.4
1.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
5.2
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.6
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
5.0
5.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.2
5.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.4
HernandezHolobaugh
Strike Zones
Hernandez
Attacking
7 landedAbsorbing
7 absorbedHolobaugh
Attacking
7 landedAbsorbing
7 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Hernandez targets the head (100% of attacks) — Holobaugh absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Holobaugh targets the head (71% of attacks) — Hernandez absorbs 71% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Hernandez
RND
Holobaugh
0/0R00/0
Hernandez · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Holobaugh · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Hernandez · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Rafa GarciaRating 6.3Decision
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Diego FerreiraRating 6.3KO/TKO
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W · Dec · R3
Kurt HolobaughRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Dolidze 2 · 2025-03
W · Dec · R3
Austin HubbardRating 4.5Decision
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Holobaugh · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Jordan LeavittRating 3Submission
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L · Dec · R3
Alexander HernandezRating 6.4Decision
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Dolidze 2 · 2025-03
W · Dec · R3
Kaynan KruschewskyRating 4.5Decision
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L · Dec · R3
Trey OgdenRating 5.6Decision
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W · Sub · R2
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