UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett
Las Vegas, USA
24 Jan 2026
Heavyweight
VS
53%
Acosta
47%
Lewis
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 3:14
Waldo
Waldo Cortes Acosta
"Salsa Boy"
17 – 3
6'4"78" reachOrthodox34 yrsStriker
CFR 66
Derrick
Derrick Lewis
"The Black Beast"
29 – 13
Knockout Artist41 yrsOrthodox79" reach6'3"
CFR 59

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Acosta

This is a genuine toss-up — Acosta at 53% vs Lewis at 47% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Lewis has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 11 points.

Striking split: Acosta throws more volume but Lewis connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Lewis has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Acosta
Lewis
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'4"+
Height
6'3"
78"
Reach
+79"
34+
Age
41
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Acosta
Lewis
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
65.8
59.2
55.7
Performance Avg
57.5
42
Quality of Victory
53
100
Momentum Score
84
Acosta
Lewis
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.4
1.3
50%
Strike Accuracy
56%
6.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
9.3
5 KOs
KO Finishes
16 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
28
Head
3
2
Body
1
2
Leg
0
RangeRange
16Distance4
1Clinch0
15Ground0
Acosta
Lewis
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
1.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.5
0.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.3
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Acosta
Lewis
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
94
0
Never stopped
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
0
KO/TKO Losses
8
0
Sub Losses
2
—
KO round context
Avg R2.1 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
13/20 fights
Chin rating based on
32/42 fights
Acosta
Lewis
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
84
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
Upcoming
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R3
L · Dec · R5
Acosta
Lewis
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
80%
5
KO / TKO Wins
16
0
Submission Wins
0
5
Decision Wins
4

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Acosta
Lewis
Striking6.5 / 9.3Volume5.5 / 2.9Grappling1.2 / 0.5Wrestling0.8 / 0.3Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure5.8 / 7.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
9.3
1.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.5
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.3
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.5
5.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.9
Acosta
Strike Zones
Lewis
Acosta
Attacking
28HEAD2BODY2LEGS32 landed
Absorbing
3HEAD1BODY0LEGS4 absorbed
Lewis
Attacking
3HEAD1BODY0LEGS4 landed
Absorbing
28HEAD2BODY2LEGS32 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Acosta targets the head (88% of attacks) — Lewis absorbs 88% of strikes there
🎯Lewis targets the head (75% of attacks) — Acosta absorbs 75% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Acosta
RND
Lewis
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Acosta · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.6
0104.5W4.5W6.1L5.0W5.2W5.3W5.7W5.0W6.7L6.0W5.7W6.5W6.8L2022-102024-012025-082026-05
WinLossTrend

Lewis · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.6
0105.0W5.0W1.5L5.2W2.8L5.5W5.0W5.0W4.5W5.4W5.1W3.4L5.9W4.9W6.8W2.1L2.1L4.5W4.5W5.1W6.1W4.5L5.3W3.2L2.7L2.0L5.6W7.3L5.6W6.2W4.3L2014-042016-072019-032022-072026-01
WinLossTrend

Acosta · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Alexander VolkovRating 6.8
Decision
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05
W · KO · R2
Derrick LewisRating 6.5
KO/TKO
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett · 2026-01
W · KO · R1
Shamil GazievRating 5.7
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker · 2025-11
W · KO · R1
Ante DelijaRating 6
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Garcia vs. Onama · 2025-11
L · Dec · R3
Sergei PavlovichRating 6.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang · 2025-08

Lewis · Last 5

Upcoming
Josh Hokit
UFC Freedom 250 · 2026-06
L · KO · R2
Waldo Cortes AcostaRating 4.3
KO/TKO
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett · 2026-01
W · KO · R1
Tallison TeixeiraRating 6.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira · 2025-07
W · KO · R3
Rodrigo NascimentoRating 5.6
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nascimento · 2024-05
L · Dec · R5
Jailton AlmeidaRating 7.3
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Lewis · 2023-11

News & Media

Waldo Cortes Acosta · Derrick Lewis
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